Highlights

• Trump announced a morning meeting with China on trade, boosting Nasdaq 100 to new highs (+2%) and lifting S&P 500 and Nasdaq1.
• China denied any tariff negotiations with the U.S., demanding Washington drop all unilateral duties and warning of readiness for a tariff war3.
• Trump signaled possible 145% tariff cuts on China if a deal is reached but warned tariffs could be set within weeks if talks fail4.
• U.S. retail sales surged 1.4% in March, led by pre-tariff buying of cars and electronics; durable goods orders soared 9.2%18.
• The U.S. Dollar Index is down 9% YTD, hitting a three-year low; Goldman and Deutsche Bank warn of further declines, with euro seen at $1.307.
• Gold rebounded to $3,340/oz after a sharp drop, amid U.S.-China trade uncertainty and a weaker dollar; IMF cut U.S. and global growth outlooks6.
• AAII survey shows record nine-week bearish sentiment; hedge funds’ long/short ratio at nine-year lows, with institutional investors bracing for S&P 500 downside8.
• Tesla Q1 net income fell 71% as EU sales plunged 45%; Musk to reduce government role to refocus on Tesla, shares rallied 8% after-hours2.
• Norway’s $1.7T sovereign fund lost $40B in Q1, mainly on tech stocks; U.S. equities exposure remains high9.
• Chipotle missed revenue estimates as same-store sales fell for the first time since 2020; shares dropped 5% after hours15.
• ServiceNow beat earnings, grew revenue 18.5%, and stock jumped 11% on strong AI-driven demand and federal business growth16.
• Boeing’s Q1 loss narrowed, backlog grew to $545B, and shares rose pre-market on improved cash flow and deliveries17.
• Trump to sign deep-sea mining order, sending The Metals Company shares up 40% on critical mineral supply hopes14.
• CME to launch micro and large XRP futures in May; SEC acknowledged VanEck spot Avalanche ETF filing amid broad crypto ETF review1213.
• IBM beat Q1 earnings but shares fell 6% after DOGE-led federal contract cuts; generative AI business grew20.
• Ukraine risks $600M default in May after failing to restructure $2.6B GDP warrants, threatening its IMF bailout19.

Commentary

Markets are closing out the session on a volatile but broadly positive note, with U.S.-China trade headlines dominating sentiment. President Trump’s announcement of a morning meeting with China provided a tailwind for equities, especially tech1, but Beijing’s categorical denial of tariff talks and threats of a renewed tariff war inject significant uncertainty3. The market’s knee-jerk rally on hopes of tariff relief could be vulnerable to reversal if concrete progress fails to materialize, especially as Trump’s rhetoric remains unpredictable4 and China’s stance hardens3.

The macro backdrop is further complicated by a sharply weaker dollar—down 9% YTD—fueling both inflationary concerns and export competitiveness7. Major banks see more downside for the greenback, which is already pressuring import costs and supporting gold prices7. Gold’s rebound after a record Shanghai sell-off underscores the market’s bid for safety amid trade and geopolitical risks, with the IMF’s global growth downgrade adding to defensive positioning6. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders surged in March, but the spike appears front-loaded by pre-tariff buying, raising the risk of a demand air pocket in coming months18.

Equity sentiment remains fragile. The AAII survey and hedge fund positioning point to the most bearish stance in decades, despite today’s bounce in major indices8. Institutional investors are bracing for a potential S&P 500 drawdown, and Norway’s sovereign fund’s $40B tech-driven loss highlights the risk in crowded growth trades9. On the micro front, Tesla’s weak quarter and Chipotle’s sales miss show cracks in consumer and discretionary demand215, while ServiceNow’s and Boeing’s beats offer some offset, particularly in AI and industrials1617.

Commodities and crypto are in focus as well. Trump’s deep-sea mining order is a clear positive for critical mineral suppliers14, while CME’s XRP futures and the SEC’s crypto ETF reviews signal deepening institutionalization of digital assets1213. In fixed income, the risk of a Ukraine default and ongoing global uncertainty may keep safe-haven demand elevated, but dollar weakness could limit U.S. Treasury outperformance197.

Traders should watch for late-session reversals if U.S.-China optimism fades, monitor the dollar’s slide for spillover into commodities and EM assets76, and keep an eye on equity sector rotation as tech volatility and defensive flows intensify89. With sentiment this bearish and macro crosscurrents swirling, risk management and tactical flexibility remain paramount into the close.