TL;DR

US-EU/Canada/Brazil tariff risks rise; BRICS to curb dollar use; record Ethereum ETF inflows.

Highlights

• China says BRICS will soon introduce measures to reduce dollar reliance in trade and finance; details pending 1.
• US finalizes trade pact with UK, but EU talks stall with 30% US tariff threat for August 1; Canada faces possible 35% US tariff, Brazil 50% 465.
• Japan disputes US claim to 90% of profits in $550B trade pact, raising uncertainty for related deals 7.
• Argentina cuts export taxes on soy, grains, and meat, aiming to boost competitiveness; cuts called permanent 9.
• Chinese lithium futures hit five-month highs after NDRC reviews pricing rules, lifting global lithium stocks 10.
• Intel may exit advanced chip manufacturing if it cannot secure major 14A node customers; restructuring and possible Apple partnership underway 13.
• China proposes global AI governance body as $1B in Nvidia chips reach China despite US curbs; Huawei unveils new high-performance AI system 14.
• Galaxy Digital handles $9B Bitcoin sale with limited market impact 15; US spot Ethereum ETFs attract $2.4B in net inflows, outpacing Bitcoin 16.
• Moody’s upgrades Turkey to Ba3 on improved policy credibility; Fitch raises Hess to AA, maintains Serbia and Saudi ratings 17.
• Russian Central Bank cuts key rate by 200bps to 18% as inflation hits 4%, but recession risks persist 11.
• Puma shares drop nearly 20% after profit warning and sales downgrade, citing high inventories 18.
• Israel opens humanitarian corridors and resumes Gaza aid airdrops under pressure; full aid access remains limited 2.

Commentary

Trade policy remains a central risk for global markets. The US-UK trade deal provides some clarity for cross-Atlantic flows 4, but unresolved negotiations with the EU, Canada, and Brazil mean significant tariff hikes could take effect as soon as August 1 465. This uncertainty is likely to weigh on equities in autos, agriculture, and manufacturing, particularly for firms exposed to transatlantic and North American supply chains. Japan’s dispute over profit allocation in its US trade pact adds further complexity for cross-border investment planning 7.

Emerging market news is mixed. Argentina’s permanent export tax cuts should support its agricultural sector and may pressure global soy and meat prices 9. Turkey’s credit upgrade reflects improved monetary policy 17, while Russia’s aggressive rate cut highlights ongoing economic stress despite inflation progress 11. The BRICS announcement on reducing dollar reliance is notable, but the lack of specifics limits immediate market impact 1; traders should watch for concrete steps.

In commodities and tech, Chinese lithium futures rallied on expectations of tighter domestic controls, supporting global lithium equities 10. Intel ’s warning about its advanced chip business underscores ongoing challenges in the semiconductor sector, with restructuring and possible partnerships signaling industry shifts 13. China’s push for global AI governance and evidence of continued Nvidia chip flows despite US export controls highlight ongoing tech competition and supply chain workarounds 14.

Crypto markets remain resilient, with a $9B Bitcoin sale absorbed smoothly 15 and Ethereum ETFs seeing record inflows, signaling robust institutional demand and potential rotation in digital asset leadership 16. In equities, Puma’s sharp decline on weak guidance may prompt broader scrutiny of consumer discretionary names 18. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and humanitarian efforts in Gaza remain on watch, but direct market impact is limited unless the situation escalates 2.