TL;DR

Israeli strikes on Iran spike oil, hit S&P futures; Iran vows retaliation; US CPI steady, jobless claims high.

Highlights

• Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites killed top Iranian generals, including Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri67.
• Iran vowed “no limits” in retaliation5; launched over 100 drones at Israel, prompting missile interceptions by Jordan420.
• Brent crude spiked up to 13%, briefly above $78/bbl; WTI topped $741; Israel shut Leviathan gas field amid security threats8.
• S&P 500 futures down as much as 1.9% pre-market; Dow futures off 500 points27; gold , Treasuries, and yen gained2.
• Israel and Iran closed their airspace indefinitely due to security concerns9.
• Israel closed all embassies worldwide and halted consular services10.
• Iran canceled planned nuclear talks with the U.S. in Oman following Israeli strikes11.
• U.S. CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (in line); jobless claims remained elevated, signaling a softer labor market14.
• SEC withdrew proposals on crypto custody, DeFi, and ESG disclosure; status quo remains for digital assets and public companies12.
• Shopify enabled crypto checkout via Coinbase; Amazon and Walmart considering stablecoins, pressuring Visa, Mastercard, AmEx shares17.
• China delayed Synopsys-Ansys merger approval amid US chip export controls; EDA tool ban remains in place13.
• Over $1B in crypto positions liquidated after strikes; Bitcoin fell to ~$103,000, Ether down ~10%19.

Commentary

US markets face a pronounced risk-off tone as Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military assets triggered a sharp escalation in regional tensions36. The confirmed deaths of Iran’s top generals—including the armed forces chief—have prompted Iran to threaten an unrestricted response57 and launch over 100 drones at Israel4, with missile interceptions by Jordan20. The resulting security fallout includes both countries closing their airspace9 and Israel shutting its largest gas field, Leviathan8, raising concerns about energy supply disruptions that could spill over into European gas markets8.

Energy prices responded with a surge: Brent crude jumped as much as 13% and WTI climbed above $741, with energy equities likely to see inflows. Broader equities are under pressure, with S&P 500 and Dow futures down notably27, while haven flows lifted gold , Treasuries, and the yen2. The risk of a wider conflict is material, and headline risk remains high as traders await further Iranian retaliation and any US response, with President Trump convening the National Security Council today16.

Macro data is largely overshadowed, but US CPI for May came in at 2.4% YoY (as forecast), and jobless claims stayed elevated, reinforcing a picture of steady inflation but a cooling labor market ahead of next week’s Fed meeting14. Fixed income may see continued support from safety flows, but persistent energy price shocks could eventually complicate the inflation outlook14.

In digital assets, the geopolitical shock triggered over $1 billion in liquidations, with Bitcoin and Ether both sharply lower19. Regulatory clarity remains elusive after the SEC withdrew several Gensler-era proposals12, but the Shopify-Coinbase partnership and stablecoin initiatives from Amazon and Walmart highlight continued mainstream adoption17, even as traditional payment networks face pressure17.

Traders should monitor further developments on Iranian retaliation, energy infrastructure, and US policy signals. Expect continued volatility in energy, defense, and payment stocks, with risk assets likely to remain sensitive to new headlines.