TL;DR

U.S. delays tariffs to Aug. 1; equity futures fall; EU trade talks, OPEC+ output, tech layoffs in focus.

Highlights

• U.S. delays start of new tariffs (10–50%) on ~100 countries to August 1; negotiations with major partners ongoing, EU talks described as “very good progress.”1
• U.S. equity futures dropped Sunday night on tariff uncertainty: Dow -0.32%, S&P 500 -0.39%, Nasdaq-100 -0.42%; VIX higher.3
• Trump considering raising EU tariffs up to 50% if no deal; EU threatens broad retaliation, risking disruption to $2T in transatlantic trade.4
• Trump signs $3.4T bill making 2017 tax cuts permanent, boosting defense, cutting Medicaid/SNAP; deficit projected to rise.5
• White House adviser Hassett claims “zero chance” of 2025 U.S. recession, projects 3% GDP growth.16
• OPEC+ raises August oil output by 548,000 bpd; oil prices briefly above $80, but analysts see downside risk into 2026.7
• Red Sea shipping hit by first major attack in months; commercial vessel set ablaze off Yemen, raising supply chain concerns.10
• Iran nuclear program hit by U.S.-Israeli strikes; Gaza ceasefire talks advance, but Middle East tensions persist.89
• Alphabet expands voluntary buyouts amid AI pivot and antitrust pressures; tech sector layoffs top 62,000 in H1 2025.12
• Foxconn Q2 revenue up 15.8% on AI server and iPhone demand; warns on geopolitical and FX risks.13
• Robinhood launches 213 tokenized stocks on Arbitrum for EU clients, raising questions for traditional exchanges.15
• Large ETH whale moves $204M to Coinbase Prime, raising near-term selling risk for Ether.14

Commentary

Markets begin the week with renewed trade uncertainty after the U.S. extended its tariff pause to August 1, shifting focus to last-minute negotiations with major partners.13 Equity futures fell Sunday night as traders reassessed the risk of broad-based 10–50% tariffs on imports from up to 100 countries, with the EU in particular facing the threat of 50% duties if talks fail.14 While the extension removes the immediate July 9 deadline, the lack of clarity on final rates and the scale of affected trade partners is likely to keep volatility elevated, especially for multinationals with significant European exposure.14

Domestically, President Trump’s $3.4T tax-and-spending package locks in permanent tax cuts and increases defense outlays, but also phases in cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, drawing criticism for deficit expansion.5 The White House is projecting 3% GDP growth and dismissing recession risks, but markets remain cautious given the potential inflationary impact of tariffs and the absence of a clear Fed easing signal.16

Commodities face cross-currents: OPEC+ raised output for August, citing tight inventories and strong demand, but analysts warn of downside risk for oil prices later in 2025 as supply growth could outpace demand.7 Meanwhile, a fresh attack on shipping in the Red Sea highlights persistent geopolitical risks for global supply chains and energy markets.10

In tech, Alphabet ’s expanded buyouts and Foxconn’s strong AI-driven revenue reflect both sectoral transformation and ongoing cost pressures.1213 Robinhood’s tokenized stock launch in Europe signals further disruption for traditional exchanges, though immediate U.S. impact is limited.15 Crypto markets may see near-term pressure after a large ETH transfer to Coinbase Prime, suggesting potential for increased selling.14

Traders should monitor tariff negotiations—especially with the EU and Asia—developments in the Middle East, and sector-specific earnings and guidance. Expect choppy trading and a defensive tone until there is more clarity on trade policy and global risk events.14