VC

May 11, 2025

Published 2 months ago

TL;DR

OpenAI restructures for IPO; CATL plans $4B Hong Kong IPO; BlackRock, Vanguard boost crypto holdings.


Highlights

    • OpenAI ($260B) is negotiating with Microsoft to restructure their partnership, enabling a for-profit transition and potential IPO; Instacart CEO Fidji Simo appointed to lead business operations 13.
    • Microsoft , OpenAI, and AMD urge the U.S. Senate to invest in infrastructure and energy to maintain AI competitiveness against China, citing risks of losing AI leadership 5.
    • CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, plans a $4B Hong Kong IPO restricting U.S. investor participation due to trade tensions; global funds show caution toward U.S. private assets 2.
    • U.S. and China reach an agreement in Geneva to reduce the trade deficit; details on tariffs pending 7.
    • Apple accelerates custom chip development with TSMC for smart glasses, Macs, AI servers, AirPods, and Apple Watch, targeting 2027 launches 6.
    • Klarna reverses its AI-only customer service strategy, rehiring 700 human agents after quality issues; IBM reallocates AI-driven savings to expand its workforce 4.
    • UK NHS deploys Foresight AI trained on 57M health records for disease prediction and cost reduction; privacy and ethics concerns raised 8.
    • BlackRock holds $67B in crypto, Vanguard invests $7B in Bitcoin ETFs, and Abraxas Capital acquires $399M in ETH as Ethereum surges 44% 12.
    • Bitcoin is 4-5% from all-time highs, driven by institutional demand and global currency devaluation, notably the Turkish Lira 15.
    • China’s EV market grows 34% YoY in April; Tesla’s China sales decline for the seventh consecutive month 11.
    • Gene therapy from CIEMAT and Rocket Pharmaceuticals restores immunity in children with rare LAD-I disorder; FDA review underway 9.
    • Ireland, France, UK, and U.S. states advance bans or restrictions on social media and smartphones for minors, signaling increased digital regulation 14.
    • Trump administration fires U.S. Copyright Office head after report rejecting AI fair use for training data, intensifying copyright debates 13.

Commentary

OpenAI's restructuring talks with Microsoft and its move toward a for-profit model and IPO highlight the rapid maturation of the AI sector, with implications for late-stage private valuations and future public market exits 13. The appointment of Fidji Simo to oversee operations signals a focus on commercial execution as OpenAI seeks to scale. Ongoing calls from Microsoft , OpenAI, and AMD for U.S. government investment in AI infrastructure underscore the competitive and capital-intensive nature of the sector, with policy outcomes likely to affect both early-stage funding and exit environments for AI startups 5.

The CATL IPO, with restrictions on U.S. investors, and the tentative U.S.-China trade agreement reflect persistent geopolitical headwinds for cross-border capital flows 27. Venture investors should expect continued fragmentation in global tech markets, especially in hardware, EVs, and supply chain-related deals. Apple's expanded custom silicon roadmap with TSMC for next-generation products points to ongoing opportunities in semiconductor and device ecosystems, but also signals increasing vertical integration by incumbents 6.

In fintech and enterprise tech, Klarna’s return to human customer service and IBM’s workforce reshuffle reflect the practical limits of current AI automation in operational roles 4. This suggests that startups pitching full automation solutions may face increased scrutiny on product efficacy and customer outcomes. Meanwhile, the UK NHS’s Foresight AI deployment demonstrates institutional appetite for large-scale AI in healthcare, though privacy and ethical hurdles remain significant for healthtech startups 8.

Institutional crypto allocations continue to rise, with BlackRock and Vanguard's activity contributing to surging crypto valuations and renewed exit potential for crypto infrastructure and fintech startups 12. However, the regulatory landscape remains fluid, as seen in the U.S. Copyright Office leadership change following a high-profile AI fair use dispute—an area to watch for content, AI, and data-focused startups 13.

Finally, the push for stricter digital regulation targeting minors in multiple Western markets signals a tougher environment for youth-focused platforms and edtech 14. Startups in these sectors will need to prioritize compliance and privacy features as regulatory risk increases.

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