TL;DR

US inflation ticks up on tariffs; 30-year yield tops 5%; Nvidia, AMD resume China AI chip exports.

Highlights

• US June CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y; core CPI at 2.9% y/y, with tariffs contributing to higher goods prices1.
• 30-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since June; 2-year yield also moved higher2.
• Nvidia and AMD received US approval to resume AI chip exports to China; Nvidia shares up 4.5%, AMD up 5–6%34.
• US Commerce Secretary linked Nvidia ’s China export approval to a deal restoring Chinese rare-earth magnet shipments to the US13.
• JPMorgan and Citigroup beat Q2 earnings expectations on strong trading and investment banking; JPMorgan raised 2025 net interest income outlook5.
• BlackRock AUM hit a record $12.53T, but shares fell up to 6% on softer revenue and a large client redemption6.
• OPEC+ increased June oil output by 349,000 bpd, led by Saudi Arabia; demand outlook unchanged7.
• President Trump set a 50-day deadline for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, threatening new tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian energy12.
• US reinstated a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes; Mexico condemned the move and warned of higher US prices18.
• DOJ and CFTC closed probes into Polymarket, but House GOP failed to advance key crypto bills, leaving regulatory clarity unresolved89.
• JPMorgan announced plans to expand into stablecoins, aiming to defend its payments business16.
• Blackstone committed $25B to build data centers and gas plants in Pennsylvania, targeting AI-driven power demand17.

Commentary

US inflation data for June showed a modest acceleration, with headline CPI at 2.7% y/y and core at 2.9% y/y1. Tariffs are now visibly impacting goods prices, particularly in household items and appliances1. This has contributed to a move higher in Treasury yields, with the 30-year breaking above 5%—a level not seen since early June—while short-term rates also edged up2. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady later this month, but the data reinforces a cautious stance and could delay the anticipated September rate cut if price pressures persist1.

Equities are mixed but supported by strong bank earnings. JPMorgan and Citigroup both beat expectations on the back of robust trading and investment banking activity, with JPMorgan raising its net interest income guidance5. However, BlackRock’s record AUM was overshadowed by softer revenue and a large institutional redemption, sending shares down as much as 6% despite a strong earnings beat6.

In tech, the US cleared Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, reversing earlier curbs and boosting both stocks34. The move is part of a broader trade negotiation, with Commerce officials tying the chip approval to restored Chinese rare-earth magnet shipments to the US13. This signals a tactical easing in US-China tech tensions, though only lower-tier chips are being approved for export13. Meanwhile, Blackstone ’s $25B investment in Pennsylvania data centers and gas-fired plants highlights continued infrastructure buildout to support AI demand17.

Commodities and geopolitics remain in focus. OPEC+ is raising output, but demand forecasts are unchanged, limiting the impact on oil prices for now7. On the geopolitical front, President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with threats of new tariffs and secondary sanctions, adds headline risk for energy and emerging market assets12. The reinstated tomato duty on Mexico escalates trade tensions and could affect US food prices if not resolved18.

Crypto markets saw a regulatory overhang lifted as DOJ and CFTC closed investigations into Polymarket, but the failure of key crypto bills in the House leaves the broader regulatory framework unresolved89. JPMorgan’s move into stablecoins signals continued institutional interest in digital assets16. Traders should monitor rates, tech, and geopolitical headlines into the close, with volatility likely in rates, FX (notably USD/CNH and MXN), and select commodity markets.