TL;DR

Israel preps Iran strike; EU bans Russian gas by 2027; gold, Bitcoin hit new highs.

Highlights

• US intelligence indicates Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear sites; risk of broader Middle East conflict1.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader rejects US uranium enrichment demands, casting doubt on nuclear talks4.
• EU to propose a zero-import quota on Russian gas by end-2027, likely increasing US LNG exports2.
• EU and UK impose new sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil fleet and financial networks; price cap on Russian crude under review3.
• Gold hits $3,411/oz, platinum up 5% on strong Chinese demand; ECB warns of gold market risks amid geopolitical stress and tariffs910.
• Bitcoin reaches $107,000, near all-time highs; South Korea legalizes Bitcoin ETFs; JPMorgan enables client Bitcoin purchases111213.
• Tether mints $2B USDT on TRON , now leading in USDT circulation; crypto market activity accelerates14.
• Foreign participation in US 30-year Treasury auctions drops to lowest since 2020, raising concerns over dollar demand15.
• UK inflation rises to 3.5% in April, highest since January 2024; BoE rate cut expectations reduced16.
• BYD shares reach record highs as EV sales grow and European expansion accelerates17.
• NATO discusses raising defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2032; fiscal impact debated7.
• US and Qatar mediate Congo-Rwanda talks to facilitate mineral processing, seeking to counter Chinese dominance in supply chains20.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated as US intelligence signals Israel is preparing for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities1, with Iran publicly rejecting US demands on uranium enrichment4. This increases the probability of regional escalation, which could disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows and add volatility to energy markets1. The EU’s push to phase out Russian gas by 20272, combined with fresh sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil fleet3, is set to further reshape global energy trade—likely supporting US LNG exporters and keeping upward pressure on European energy prices23.

Gold ’s surge above $3,400/oz and platinum ’s breakout are driven by both safe-haven demand and strong Chinese imports9. The ECB’s warning about gold market opacity and financial stability risks highlights the potential for further volatility, especially as global trade tensions and tariffs persist10. Meanwhile, reduced foreign participation in US Treasury auctions is a notable signal for fixed income markets, raising questions about ongoing demand for US debt and the dollar’s resilience, particularly as tariff uncertainty lingers15.

In digital assets, Bitcoin ’s approach to all-time highs is supported by institutional adoption (JPMorgan 13, South Korea ETF approval12) and regulatory developments (US stablecoin bill19). Tether ’s $2B USDT minting on TRON 14 and increased crypto activity point to robust liquidity, but recent liquidations and volatility in crypto-exposed equities (e.g., Metaplanet in Japan) suggest traders should remain cautious on leverage and positioning1118.

On the macro front, UK inflation’s unexpected rise to 3.5% has led markets to scale back expectations for BoE rate cuts, supporting the pound but raising concerns about the persistence of price pressures16. In equities, BYD’s record highs reflect strong EV demand and successful European expansion17, while NATO’s proposed defense spending hike could provide ongoing support to defense and infrastructure sectors, though it may weigh on European fiscal balances7.

Traders should closely monitor Middle East developments for energy market impact1, watch US Treasury auction demand15, and track volatility in gold and crypto as cross-asset correlations remain sensitive to geopolitical and macro headlines91011.