TL;DR

Trump ramps tariffs on drugs, copper, chips; US-China truce near; SEC eases crypto staking rules.

Highlights

• Trump administration announces up to 250% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, 50% tariffs on $15B of copper products, and plans chip tariffs next week; further tariff threats target India and the EU1234.
• US and China near a deal to extend their trade truce by 90 days; rare-earth supply talks ongoing5.
• US June trade deficit narrows to $60.2B, lowest since 2023, as imports fall ahead of tariff hikes12.
• Trump signals imminent changes at the Fed and BLS: Fed Governor Kugler to depart, Powell replacement shortlist narrowed to four, new BLS chief to be named67.
• SEC clarifies most liquid staking tokens are not securities, reducing regulatory risk for Ethereum and Solana staking8.
• EPA to cancel $7B in Biden-era solar grants, increasing uncertainty for renewables sector9.
• US Treasury to auction record $100B in four-week bills after strong demand for short-term debt13.
• NY Fed reports record $18.39T in household debt; student loan delinquencies jump to 10.2%14.
• AMD reports after close amid high expectations and options-implied 8% move; Intel ’s 18A chip yields remain low1516.
• Palantir shares hit record after first $1B quarter and raised outlook; analysts lift targets17.
• UnitedHealth up 3% on Medicare bonus optimism and unverified Berkshire Hathaway speculation20.
• Coinbase shares slip after $2B convertible note offering; Base network briefly halted, then resumed18.
• US DOT proposes new rules for routine commercial drone operations beyond visual line of sight11.

Commentary

US markets are contending with a renewed wave of protectionist trade actions from the Trump administration. The announcement of steep tariffs on pharmaceuticals, copper products, and the prospect of chip duties next week, alongside threats of higher tariffs on India and the EU, is increasing uncertainty for sectors reliant on global supply chains1234. These measures are likely to pressure input costs for manufacturers and healthcare firms, and could trigger retaliatory moves from trading partners. The copper tariff, in particular, has already weighed on futures as the market anticipates reduced demand from US manufacturers2.

On the macro front, the US and China are reportedly close to extending their trade truce, which may help stabilize sentiment for US firms with China exposure, especially in technology and industrials5. The June trade deficit narrowed sharply, reflecting both a pullback in imports ahead of tariff hikes and softer demand12. Traders should expect continued volatility in trade data as new duties take effect12.

In regulatory news, the SEC’s clarification on liquid staking tokens removes a significant overhang for Ethereum and Solana, potentially supporting related crypto assets and ETF development8. Conversely, the EPA’s planned cancellation of $7B in solar grants adds uncertainty for renewables, with legal challenges likely9. The DOT’s proposed drone rules could accelerate commercial drone adoption, benefiting logistics and tech firms11.

Equity markets are focused on AI and chip earnings. Palantir ’s strong results and outlook drove the stock to new highs17, while AMD ’s post-close report is a key watch, given high expectations and implied volatility15. Intel ’s ongoing yield issues on its 18A process remain a concern for its turnaround story16. UnitedHealth ’s move higher on Medicare bonus optimism and rumors of Berkshire Hathaway interest highlight the market’s sensitivity to regulatory and M&A headlines20. Coinbase ’s convertible note deal weighed on its shares despite the positive SEC news for staking tokens188.

Short-term Treasuries continue to see robust demand amid macro and policy uncertainty, as the Treasury prepares a record $100B four-week bill auction13. Meanwhile, household debt continues to climb, with student loan delinquencies rising—an area to watch for potential consumer credit stress14.