TL;DR

World Bank cuts growth outlook; Fed seen easing in September; Tesla, Smucker tumble on weak outlooks.

Highlights

• World Bank cuts 2025 global growth outlook to 2.3% (from 2.7%), citing U.S. tariffs and trade tensions; U.S. GDP forecast trimmed to 1.4%1.
• Citi and Reuters poll: Fed now expected to start rate cuts in September, totaling 75 bps in 2025; inflation risks tied to tariffs2.
• Alphabet gains 1.5% after OpenAI signs Google Cloud deal for AI compute; Microsoft edges lower4.
• Tesla faces 21% YoY Q2 delivery drop; Wells Fargo sets $120 target (60% downside); J.P. Morgan also bearish7.
• J.M. Smucker drops 13% after Hostess-driven loss and weak 2026 profit outlook; coffee costs and tariffs cited as headwinds8.
• EIA projects first U.S. oil output decline since 2021 in 2026; Gulf of Mexico to drive near-term growth; WTI forecast $62.33/bbl for 20255.
• SEC requests amended filings for spot Solana ETFs, setting up potential approval in 3–5 weeks6.
• House panel advances CLARITY Act for digital asset regulation; Trump CFTC nominee backs crypto clarity18.
• Trump-backed American Bitcoin Corp adds $23M in BTC, plans Nasdaq listing post-Gryphon merger; Trump media arm to raise $2.5B for Bitcoin16.
• Trump invokes Insurrection Act, sends 4,700 troops to Los Angeles amid protests; legal and local opposition mounts12.
• CENTCOM presents Trump with military options against Iran if nuclear talks fail; Houthi missile from Yemen intercepted over Israel910.
• WPP Media cuts 2025 global ad growth forecast to 6%; user-generated platforms to take majority of $1.08T ad spend20.

Commentary

Growth concerns are front and center after the World Bank’s significant downgrade of 2025 global and U.S. GDP forecasts, driven by escalating U.S. tariffs and trade frictions1. The warning of the weakest non-recession growth since 2008, alongside persistent inflation above pre-pandemic levels, sets a cautious tone for risk assets. Markets are now looking to the Fed, with consensus shifting toward a September start for rate cuts and a total of 75 bps in 2025, as policymakers balance growth risks against tariff-driven inflation2.

Equities are seeing pronounced sector divergence. Tech outperformed on news of OpenAI’s cloud deal with Google , boosting Alphabet shares and pressuring Microsoft as OpenAI diversifies away from Azure4. In contrast, consumer and auto names remain pressured: Tesla is under heavy scrutiny with a projected 21% Q2 delivery drop and bearish analyst targets, while J.M. Smucker ’s record single-day decline reflects ongoing demand and margin headwinds, exacerbated by higher input costs and tariff uncertainty78.

Energy markets are digesting the EIA’s forecast for a U.S. oil output decline in 2026, despite near-term growth from the Gulf of Mexico5. Lower demand forecasts and subdued WTI price projections ($62.33/bbl for 2025) may limit upside for energy equities. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with CENTCOM preparing options on Iran and Houthi missile threats, but so far, oil prices remain anchored by fundamentals910.

Crypto and digital asset regulation is in focus. The SEC is expediting spot Solana ETF reviews, and the House is advancing the CLARITY Act, signaling a more defined regulatory path618. Trump-affiliated entities are accumulating Bitcoin and preparing for public listings, further institutionalizing the asset class16. These developments could drive volatility in crypto equities and tokens.

Traders should monitor late-session moves tied to macro data, sector-specific earnings, and regulatory headlines—especially around Fed policy, digital assets, and domestic unrest in Los Angeles12. Defensive positioning and select tech exposure may be favored into the close.