Highlights

• US stocks surged (Dow +1.5%, S&P 500 +1.48%, Nasdaq +1.93%) after Trump confirmed a US-UK trade deal, easing trade tension fears and boosting risk appetite 119.
• The US-UK trade agreement cuts beef tariffs close to zero, sets UK car tariffs at 10% with a 100,000 vehicle quota, and includes a $10B Boeing aircraft purchase by the UK; Boeing stock jumped 3.5% 718.
• Trump announced a reduction of Rolls Royce tariffs to 10% (from 25%), expects China tariffs to fall, but ruled out similar auto deals for other countries 16.
• US jobless claims fell to 228,000 (below forecast), while unit labor costs rose sharply to 5.7% and Q1 productivity declined 0.8%, pointing to persistent wage pressures 2.
• Treasury yields climbed across the curve (2-year at 3.89%, 10-year at 4.37%, 30-year auction at 4.819% with a weak bid-to-cover), as supply concerns and higher labor costs weighed on bonds 3.
• Bitcoin broke above $100,000 (+38% in a month), buoyed by risk-on sentiment post-trade deal and new OCC guidance allowing US banks to buy, sell, and custody crypto 49.
• Coinbase acquired Deribit for $2.9B to expand its crypto derivatives business; Coinbase stock rose 4% 8.
• The Senate failed to advance the GENIUS Act (stablecoin regulation), stalling federal oversight of dollar-backed tokens amid partisan disputes 5.
• US blacklisted Chinese refiners and ports for importing Iranian oil, disrupting flows and raising supply chain risks; Iran unveiled an underground drone base and released surveillance footage of US warships 614.
• Energy sector mixed: Occidental and ConocoPhillips beat Q1 earnings, Cenovus cut jobs, Cheniere exported 168 LNG cargoes, and refiners reported volatile results amid lower oil prices 10.
• Shopify stock dropped 7% pre-market on an EPS miss and weak free cash flow guidance, despite strong revenue growth; Tapestry stock rose 7% on Q3 outperformance 11.
• Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell for lagging on rate cuts as BoE and PBOC ease policy; market eyes global central bank divergence 15.

Commentary

Today’s session was dominated by the announcement and confirmation of a US-UK trade deal, which lifted equities across the board and triggered a broad risk-on move 119. The agreement not only slashed tariffs on UK beef and set favorable terms for UK car exports, but also included a major $10 billion Boeing order and a significant Rolls Royce tariff cut 71618. Boeing and related industrials outperformed, while the broader market rally reflected relief that trade tensions may be easing—potentially setting the stage for further deals, including with China 1716.

Despite the equity optimism, fixed income markets saw a different story: Treasury yields rose sharply across the curve following a weak 30-year bond auction and hotter-than-expected unit labor cost data 23. The jump in labor costs (+5.7%) and falling productivity highlight ongoing inflationary pressures, which, combined with heavy Treasury supply, weighed on bonds 23. The divergence between Trump’s calls for rate cuts and the Fed’s more cautious stance—especially as other central banks ease—adds to the uncertainty for rates traders 15.

Commodities and energy markets are caught in crosscurrents. US sanctions on Chinese refiners over Iranian oil imports have already disrupted flows and could tighten global supply, even as Iran flexes its military muscle in the Persian Gulf 614. Meanwhile, energy sector earnings were mixed: upstream names like Occidental and ConocoPhillips beat estimates and are managing capex tightly, but refiners and services remain cautious amid price volatility 10.

Crypto assets are in the spotlight: Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000, fueled by the risk-on environment, OCC’s green light for banks to handle crypto, and M&A activity (Coinbase ’s $2.9B Deribit acquisition) 489. Regulatory uncertainty persists, however, as the Senate blocked the GENIUS Act, leaving stablecoin oversight unresolved 5. The RWA tokenization sector is also gaining traction, with BlackRock-backed Securitize attracting fresh funding and SEC engagement 12.

Into the close, traders should watch for follow-through on the equity rally, bond market stability amid heavy supply and inflation concerns, and further moves in crypto as regulatory and institutional developments accelerate. The interplay between trade optimism, sticky wage inflation, and central bank policy divergence will likely drive cross-asset volatility in the coming sessions 1234515. Stay nimble—headline risk remains high, especially around trade, rates, and geopolitics.