TL;DR

Trump’s 50% copper/Brazil tariffs roil markets; TSMC, Delta beat; AI, energy, copper in focus.

Highlights

• Trump to impose 50% tariffs on all copper and Brazilian imports from August 1; copper futures hit record highs, Brazilian real - United States Dollar drops 2%+ 12.
• Brazil pledges reciprocal tariffs, escalating risk of a US-Brazil trade dispute impacting agriculture and industrial goods 2.
• Russia launches record drone and missile barrage on Ukraine; US signals new sanctions after Rubio-Lavrov meeting 34.
• OPEC cuts near-term oil demand forecast but maintains long-term bullish outlook; sees demand rising to 2050 7.
• PJM grid faces strain from AI-driven electricity demand, pushing prices up 20% and reviving nuclear debate 9.
• TSMC Q2 revenue jumps 39% on AI chip demand, beating estimates; investors await July 17 outlook 11.
• xAI (Musk) launches Grok 4, outperforming rivals on benchmarks; Amazon considers larger Anthropic AI investment 1213.
• Tesla to roll out Grok AI assistant in vehicles next week, adding new in-car features 14.
• Ether nears $2,900 as large holders accumulate and shorts are liquidated; corporate demand rising 15.
• Delta Air Lines beats Q2 estimates, restores 2025 profit guidance; stock up 7% pre-market 10.
• Chinese developers rally on stimulus hopes 17; China H1 auto sales top 15 million, with NEVs up 40%+ 18.
• Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea shipping; crew from sunken Greek ship held, raising maritime risk 8.

Commentary

US market focus this morning is on the sharp escalation in trade tensions: Trump’s announcement of 50% tariffs on copper and all Brazilian imports has triggered a surge in copper prices and a selloff in Brazilian assets such as the Brazilian real - United States Dollar 12. The US relies heavily on imported copper, so higher input costs could pressure margins for US manufacturers, especially in autos, EVs, and grid equipment 1. Brazil’s pledge of reciprocal tariffs raises the risk of disruption in agricultural and industrial trade flows 2. Watch for volatility in industrials, agri-exporters, and US firms with Brazil exposure.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. Russia’s record drone and missile attacks on Ukraine 3, coupled with US plans for further sanctions 4, keep energy and defense sectors in focus. In the Middle East, Houthi attacks continue to disrupt Red Sea shipping, with crew members now detained after a vessel sinking 8. While OPEC trimmed its near-term oil demand outlook due to slower China growth, the group maintains a bullish long-term view 7. Energy and shipping stocks may see increased attention amid these supply risks.

AI-driven demand continues to shape both tech and infrastructure narratives. TSMC ’s strong Q2 results highlight robust chip demand for AI applications 11, while Musk’s xAI Grok 4 launch 12 and Amazon ’s potential deeper investment in Anthropic 13 signal intensifying competition in the AI space. However, surging power consumption from AI data centers is straining the PJM grid, driving up electricity prices and reviving debate over nuclear power and infrastructure upgrades 9. Utilities and select power generation names could benefit.

In crypto, Ether’s rally above $2,900 is being driven by large-scale accumulation and increased corporate treasury activity, triggering short liquidations and broader positioning shifts 15. Meanwhile, Delta’s strong quarter and restored guidance support positive sentiment in US airlines 10, while Chinese equities are buoyed by stimulus hopes 17 and robust NEV sales 18.