TL;DR

Trump-Putin Alaska summit, EU-U.S. tariff deal nears, oil and crypto markets see major moves.

Highlights

• Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska Aug. 15 for talks on Ukraine, trade, and nuclear arms; Putin signals openness to new nuclear pact16.
• EU and U.S. near final trans-Atlantic tariff deal; U.S. draft received, with car and tech tariff cuts pending2.
• Oil drops to two-month lows on U.S. inventory build and IEA oversupply warning; partial rebound on geopolitical risk ahead of summit3.
• Bitcoin hits record $124,000 and Binance Coin sets new high, driven by Fed rate-cut bets and regulatory tailwinds419.
• China considers using state-owned firms to absorb unsold housing stock; Evergrande liquidation and property sector stress persist5.
• Adyen shares fall 19% after revenue miss and guidance cut, citing weak online retail, U.S. tariffs, and FX headwinds8.
• UK Q2 GDP beats at +0.3% QoQ but slows sharply from Q1; services and construction up, retail weak15.
• Norges Bank holds rate at 4.25%, signals more cuts later in 2025; inflation remains above target, tariffs add uncertainty16.
• U.S. delays decision on pharma tariffs; industry prepares for possible duties up to 250% on drugs and ingredients14.
• China completes ¥188B ($26B) ultra-long bond sale for equipment upgrades, aiming to support domestic demand9.
• Centrica and ECP in exclusive talks to buy UK’s Isle of Grain LNG terminal for $2.25B, controlling 20% of UK gas imports13.
• India and China discuss reopening border trade, indicating incremental thaw after years of tension11.

Commentary

Markets are focused on the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, where Ukraine, trade, and nuclear arms control are on the agenda16. Putin’s unusually positive tone ahead of the meeting suggests potential for progress, but any lack of movement—especially on Ukraine—could renew the risk of U.S. sanctions, particularly on Russian energy exports6. Oil remains under pressure after a surprise U.S. inventory build and IEA warnings of a 2026 supply glut, with only a modest rebound on summit-related risk3. Unless the summit produces a material shift on sanctions or supply, oil is likely to stay rangebound3.

Trade policy remains a key driver, with the EU and U.S. close to finalizing a tariff deal that would lower duties on autos and tech but leave metals unresolved for now2. Adyen’s sharp share decline highlights the drag from ongoing tariff uncertainty and softer cross-border payments, a theme likely to persist as the U.S. delays a decision on pharma tariffs that could hit global drugmakers814. The delay adds headline risk for the sector, which is already sensitive to trade policy shifts14.

In China, authorities are considering direct intervention in the property market by mobilizing state-owned firms to absorb unsold housing, signaling a shift in policy as Evergrande’s liquidation underscores sector stress5. The completion of a large ultra-long bond sale for infrastructure upgrades points to continued fiscal support9. Meanwhile, UK GDP data surprised to the upside but showed clear deceleration15, and Norges Bank’s hold—with a dovish bias—mirrors the cautious stance among developed-market central banks16.

The crypto market remains strong, with Bitcoin and Binance Coin setting new records on expectations of Fed rate cuts and regulatory easing419. Institutional demand is rising, but traders should watch for volatility as new compliance requirements, such as Google ’s app licensing rules, take effect10.

Traders should monitor Alaska summit headlines for any shift in geopolitical risk, track finalization of the EU-U.S. tariff deal, and watch for further signals from China on property and fiscal policy. Volatility in oil, crypto, and select equities is likely to remain elevated.