TL;DR

Trump–Putin summit eyes Ukraine cease-fire; US-India trade talks collapse; Nvidia resumes China chip sales.

Highlights

• Trump and Putin to hold Alaska summit on August 15 over Ukraine cease-fire; draft deal could formalize Russian control of Donbas and Crimea12.
• US and Russia in advanced talks to freeze Ukraine war along current front lines; oil prices fell on possible sanction relief2.
• EU and Ukraine leaders insist no deal without Kyiv; Western allies pledge continued support and sanctions on Moscow1420.
• US-India trade talks collapse; US imposes 50% tariffs on Indian exports, raising risks to India’s manufacturing sector and equities6.
• US clarifies 15% tariff on Japanese goods will be included in MFN rates; auto tariff relief possible by mid-September7.
• China presses US to ease AI chip export curbs; US grants Nvidia new China chip licences after CEO’s White House meeting34.
• China detains senior diplomat Liu Jianchao, adding uncertainty to ongoing trade and diplomatic negotiations12.
• China’s July CPI flat YoY, core CPI at 17-month high, PPI down 3.6%; deflation persists despite some demand stabilization5.
• Europe’s heatwave curtails nuclear output, boosts gas demand, disrupts rail; energy prices face upward pressure11.
• Canada to deepen Russian oil price cap; July jobs report shows 40,800 jobs lost, mostly full-time, with unemployment at 6.9%1018.
• Israel’s Gaza takeover plan triggers mass protest and UN crisis meeting; US, Qatar, Egypt push for cease-fire815.
• Ether surges above $4,200, causing over $200 million in short liquidations13.

Commentary

The upcoming Trump–Putin summit in Alaska is the primary global risk event, with markets watching for any Ukraine cease-fire that could legitimize Russian territorial gains in Donbas and Crimea12. While oil prices have softened on expectations of possible sanctions relief and increased Russian supply, the lack of Ukrainian and European buy-in suggests any deal faces substantial implementation and enforcement risks214. Western governments remain committed to sanctions and military aid, limiting the scope for a broad re-rating of Russian assets1420.

Trade policy remains a key market driver. The collapse of US-India talks and the imposition of 50% US tariffs on Indian exports create headwinds for India’s manufacturing sector and equity markets, with Moody’s highlighting downside risks6. Japan, by contrast, secures some tariff clarification and potential auto tariff relief, but political uncertainty persists as the LDP moves against PM Ishiba7. In the tech sector, the US is selectively granting Nvidia China chip licences even as China seeks broader export curbs relief, underscoring a tactical, case-by-case approach amid ongoing strategic competition34. The detention of senior Chinese diplomat Liu Jianchao adds further uncertainty to the outlook for US-China negotiations12.

China’s macro data points to persistent deflation at the producer level despite a modest uptick in core CPI, suggesting demand remains fragile and stimulus expectations will stay in focus5. In Europe, the heatwave is disrupting nuclear power output and rail transport, driving up gas demand and likely keeping regional energy prices elevated11. Canada faces its own challenges, with a weak jobs report and a planned deeper cut to the Russian oil price cap, signaling ongoing economic headwinds1018.

Middle East risk remains elevated as Israel’s Gaza operation triggers mass protests and a UN crisis meeting, while diplomatic efforts for a cease-fire continue815. Crypto markets are seeing renewed volatility, with Ether ’s sharp rally and short squeeze reflecting increased risk appetite13.

Traders should monitor developments on the Ukraine cease-fire, tariff and trade policy shifts, and energy market disruptions for near-term volatility across FX, rates, commodities, and equities.