TL;DR

US-EU clinch tariff/energy/AI chip deals; oil up on Russia deadline; euro, rouble weaken.

Highlights

• US and EU agree to 15% tariffs on most European goods (down from 30% threat)1; 50% US tariffs on EU steel/aluminum remain1; euro drops 1%, European stocks rally1.
• EU commits to $750B in US energy imports3 and €40B ($46B) in US AI chips through 20286, boosting US export outlook.
• Oil rises 2% after Trump cuts Russia’s Ukraine ceasefire deadline to 10–12 days, threatens 100% tariffs and new sanctions47; rouble down 2% vs USD4.
• Russia extends gasoline export ban through August 31, tightening refined product supply11.
• US and China resume tariff talks in Stockholm; no breakthrough, but negotiations continue2.
• Senate Democrats urge Commerce to maintain AI chip export ban to China5; Nvidia orders 300K more H20 chips from TSMC amid Chinese demand8.
• Apple to close first mainland China store as iPhone sales slump10; India surpasses China as top US smartphone supplier17.
• Cadence Design Systems pleads guilty to illegal China tech sales, pays $140M fine; shares up 7.8%9.
• UBS restricts sales of complex FX derivatives after client losses tied to post-tariff dollar volatility13.
• Japan’s 2-year bond auction sees strongest demand since 2024 as yields hit 16-year highs18.
• ECB warns dollar stablecoins threaten euro monetary autonomy12; Interactive Brokers considers launching stablecoin for 24/7 client funding16.
• Coinbase in advanced talks to acquire India’s CoinDCX for under $1B, signaling further crypto market consolidation19.
• EU suspends Ukraine aid over anti-corruption reform delays, freezing payments from Russian asset income20.

Commentary

The US-EU trade agreement removes the immediate risk of a transatlantic trade war, supporting European equities and strengthening the US dollar as the euro slides1. The deal’s 15% tariffs are less severe than initially threatened, but still higher than the EU’s average, and steel/aluminum duties remain elevated1. The EU’s massive commitments to US energy3 and AI chip imports6 signal a structural shift in transatlantic trade, with clear upside for US exporters in energy and semiconductors.

Energy markets are reacting to both geopolitics and supply constraints. Oil prices climbed after Trump shortened Russia’s Ukraine ceasefire deadline and threatened sweeping new sanctions47, while Russia’s extension of its gasoline export ban further tightens refined product supply11. These developments support US energy equities and exporters37, while keeping the rouble under pressure4.

In tech, US-China tensions persist. Senate Democrats are pushing to keep AI chip export bans in place5, even as Nvidia faces strong Chinese demand and supply shortfalls, leading to new orders from TSMC 8. The EU’s $46B AI chip order is a tailwind for US chipmakers6, but Apple ’s China store closure10 and the surge in Indian smartphone exports to the US17 highlight ongoing supply chain realignments and China’s weakening position in global tech hardware.

Elsewhere, Japan’s robust 2-year bond auction reflects rising yields and expectations for Bank of Japan policy normalization18. UBS’s move to restrict complex FX derivatives follows client losses from dollar volatility post-tariff announcements13, underscoring the need for risk controls in turbulent currency markets. In digital assets, the ECB’s warning on dollar stablecoins12 and Interactive Brokers’ stablecoin plans16 point to growing regulatory focus and the integration of crypto with traditional finance. Coinbase ’s potential CoinDCX acquisition shows continued consolidation in India’s crypto sector19. The EU’s suspension of Ukraine aid over anti-corruption delays adds another layer of uncertainty to the region20.