TL;DR

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, tech sector hedging, and Intel’s surge drive market focus into the close.

Highlights

• Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday is in focus; markets price in 83% odds of a September rate cut, but mixed inflation and jobs data complicate the outlook1.
• Options traders are buying QQQ “disaster” puts at the fastest pace since 2022, signaling hedging against a tech pullback6.
• Intel jumps up to 10% after SoftBank’s $2B stake and news the U.S. may take a non-voting 10% equity stake via CHIPS Act grants13.
• U.S. regulators tighten Nvidia export controls, requiring licenses for any new chip products bound for China2.
• Bitcoin drops 7.7% to ~$113,000 amid a broader risk-off move, despite institutional buying and Bullish’s $1.15B stablecoin-settled IPO7.
• Viking Therapeutics plunges 37% after its oral obesity drug shows strong efficacy but high dropout rates9.
• Home Depot misses Q2 estimates but reaffirms 2025 outlook; tariffs and delayed large projects weigh on results11.
• U.S. broadens Xinjiang forced-labor import ban to steel, copper, lithium, and more, increasing scrutiny on Chinese supply chains5.
• U.S. housing starts hit a five-month high, but future permits fall for a fourth straight month, signaling a potential slowdown ahead14.
• Trump administration rules out U.S. troops in Ukraine, seeks direct Putin-Zelensky talks, raising hopes for de-escalation34.
• Fed’s Bowman flags “debanking” risks, signals possible regulatory action, and reiterates support for rate cuts18.
• Wyoming launches the first state-issued stablecoin (FRNT); SoFi to offer Bitcoin-based cross-border payments20.

Commentary

Markets are trading cautiously ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, with futures reflecting high expectations for a September rate cut but mixed economic signals keeping traders on edge1. Real-time inflation is near target, but core pressures and a sharp rise in producer prices complicate the Fed’s path, while labor market data shows hiring cooling1. The probability of a dovish pivot is high, but Powell may avoid strong forward guidance, which could leave rates and equities volatile into Friday1.

Tech sector sentiment is fragile. Defensive hedging in QQQ puts has surged, reflecting concerns about a reversal after a strong rally6. Intel stands out, rallying on SoftBank’s $2B stake and the prospect of a 10% U.S. government equity holding, both seen as votes of confidence in its turnaround13. Meanwhile, Nvidia faces tighter U.S. export restrictions to China, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risks for the sector2.

Crypto markets are under pressure, with Bitcoin dropping sharply despite continued institutional interest and new developments like Bullish’s stablecoin IPO and Wyoming’s FRNT stablecoin launch720. The move lower in Bitcoin and increased volatility in tech suggest broader risk aversion, with traders watching key technical levels for further downside7.

In other sectors, Home Depot ’s Q2 miss and cautious outlook underscore the impact of tariffs and consumer hesitation on large projects11. The expansion of forced-labor import bans will increase compliance costs for industrials and retailers sourcing from China5. U.S. housing data is mixed: strong starts contrast with declining permits, signaling potential softness ahead for homebuilders14.

Geopolitically, the Trump administration’s decision to rule out U.S. troops in Ukraine and efforts to facilitate direct talks between Putin and Zelensky reduce near-term escalation risk, but the situation remains fluid34. Regulatory scrutiny on “debanking” and upcoming leverage rules for banks may also add to sector-specific volatility18.