TL;DR

Nvidia, AMD resume China chip sales; Trump threatens EU tariffs; US June CPI seen higher on tariffs.

Highlights

• Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip shipments to China after US signals export license approvals; Nvidia up 4%, AMD up 5% pre-market 111.
• Trump threatens 30% tariffs on EU imports by August 1; EU pauses countermeasures, talks ongoing 35.
• US threatens 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russian exports unless Ukraine cease-fire is reached within 50 days; Kremlin signals readiness for talks but rejects ultimatums 417.
• June US CPI expected to rise to 2.7% y/y, with tariffs on Chinese goods driving the uptick; Fed rate cut odds remain low 18.
• JPMorgan , Wells Fargo , and BNY Mellon beat Q2 earnings; Wells Fargo cuts 2025 net interest income outlook, JPMorgan flags tariff and rate risks 81015.
• BlackRock posts record $12.5T AUM and beats on earnings, but shares slip on softer inflows and tariff uncertainty 9.
• Japan’s 10-year yield hits 1.595%, a 17-year high, amid fiscal concerns; risk of spillover to global bond markets 2.
• China Q2 GDP beats at 5.2% on strong factory output, but property sector remains weak; stimulus expected 6.
• US Treasury begins search for Powell’s Fed successor; process to move quickly 7.
• Dormant 2011 Bitcoin whale moves $4.7B to Galaxy Digital; Standard Chartered launches institutional spot crypto trading; US Ethereum ETFs see record $259M daily inflow 121314.
• France, UK, Germany threaten UN snapback sanctions on Iran by end-August if no nuclear progress 16.
• Germany seeks US Typhon missiles for deterrence; US and NATO step up Ukraine arms support 20.

Commentary

US equity futures are firmer, led by semiconductors after the US government signaled it will allow Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip shipments to China, reversing a key export ban 111. Both stocks are sharply higher pre-market, lifting tech sentiment and providing a tailwind for the Nasdaq . This move restores access to a major growth market for US chipmakers and eases some US-China tech tensions, though the broader trade environment remains volatile 111.

Trade policy risk is front and center. President Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs on EU imports by August 1 has the EU preparing a large retaliatory list but pausing countermeasures pending talks 35. The US is also threatening 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russian exports unless a Ukraine cease-fire is reached within 50 days 417. These developments have direct implications for inflation and global supply chains. June US CPI is expected to show the first clear tariff-driven uptick, with consensus at 2.7% y/y 18. This complicates the Fed’s rate path, and markets are not pricing in a near-term cut 18.

Banks delivered solid Q2 results—JPMorgan , Wells Fargo , and BNY Mellon all beat estimates—but management flagged persistent risks from tariffs, rates, and policy uncertainty 81015. Wells Fargo cut its 2025 net interest income outlook, and BlackRock shares slipped despite record AUM, as softer inflows and tariff worries weigh on asset managers 910. Meanwhile, the search for Powell’s Fed successor adds a new source of policy uncertainty 7.

Global rates are in focus as Japan’s 10-year yield hit a 17-year high on fiscal concerns, raising the risk of spillover into US and European bond markets 2. In China, Q2 GDP topped expectations, but property sector weakness is likely to drive further stimulus, with mixed implications for global demand and commodities 6.

Crypto flows remain robust: a dormant Bitcoin whale moved $4.7B to Galaxy Digital 12, Standard Chartered launched institutional spot trading in Bitcoin and Ether 13, and US Ethereum ETFs posted record inflows 14. Traders should monitor for volatility from large crypto transfers and continued institutional demand.