TL;DR

U.S. yields spike on Trump tax bill; tech, AI, and quantum stocks rally; housing, crypto face headwinds.

Highlights

• U.S. Treasury yields surge to 2025 highs (20-year at 5.14%) after House passes Trump’s $4.5T tax bill, raising deficit and inflation concerns12.
• Treasury’s $16B 20-year bond auction sees weak demand; Fed confirms no participation in primary auctions, highlighting supply/demand risks for U.S. debt195.
• U.S. jobless claims dip to 227k but continuing claims rise; Chicago Fed index drops, signaling softer economic activity3.
• U.S. home prices fall 0.1% in April, first decline since 2022; existing-home sales hit slowest April pace since 2009 as inventory rises4.
• Nvidia , Tesla , and other momentum names drive $250B in short seller losses; S&P 500 up 17% since April 9 on easing tariffs and tech strength11.
• Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square takes new Amazon stake; stock gains 2% and joins Google in Ackman’s portfolio15.
• MNTN ’s connected TV adtech IPO surges over 60% on debut, marking first major U.S. VC-backed tech IPO of 202516.
• OpenAI acquires Jony Ive’s io for $6.5B to develop AI hardware; JPMorgan , Microsoft , Oracle , and SoftBank back $7B+ AI data center in Texas614.
• Quantum computing stocks rally: IonQ up 40% on CEO outlook and Einride partnership; sector-wide gains20.
• MicroStrategy plans $2.1B preferred stock sale to buy more Bitcoin ; CFTC signals possible approval for crypto perpetual futures in U.S.717.
• Major Sui blockchain hack drains $223M from Cetus Protocol; $160M frozen for recovery, SUI and related tokens drop9.
• FTC and DOJ back Texas-led antitrust suit against BlackRock , State Street , Vanguard over alleged anti-coal ESG collusion8.
• FAA approves SpaceX Starship Flight 9, expanding hazard zones for Mars and Starlink missions18.
• Geopolitical updates: Putin orders buffer zone on Russia-Ukraine border; Iran warns UN/IAEA over Israeli threats to nuclear sites1213.

Commentary

The passage of Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax bill is the dominant macro driver today, sending long-end Treasury yields to new 2025 highs as markets price in higher deficits and inflation risk12. The weak 20-year bond auction19 and the Fed’s decision to avoid primary auctions5 further underscore supply/demand concerns in U.S. government debt, putting pressure on TLT and other long-duration fixed income. These developments are likely to keep rates volatile and may weigh on rate-sensitive sectors.

Economic data offered mixed signals: initial jobless claims edged down, but rising continuing claims and a weaker Chicago Fed index point to some softening in labor and regional activity3. In housing, the first monthly home price decline since 2022 and the slowest April sales pace since 2009 reflect the drag from higher rates and growing supply4. These trends could affect consumer sentiment and homebuilder equities.

Equities remain resilient, led by large-cap tech and AI themes. Nvidia and Tesla ’s rallies continue to squeeze short sellers, while the S&P 500 is up 17% since April’s tariff delay11. Bill Ackman’s new Amazon stake and the strong MNTN IPO highlight ongoing demand for growth and tech exposure1516. OpenAI’s $6.5B hardware acquisition6 and the $7B+ Texas data center investment, with backing from major tech and finance names including JPMorgan , Microsoft , Oracle , and SoftBank, reinforce the capital flowing into AI infrastructure14. Quantum computing stocks also saw outsized moves on sector optimism, led by IonQ 20.

Crypto markets are in focus after a $223M hack on Sui’s Cetus Protocol, though partial recovery efforts are underway and SUI and related tokens dropped9. MicroStrategy ’s planned $2.1B preferred stock sale to buy more Bitcoin 7 and the CFTC’s openness to crypto perpetual futures17 suggest continued institutional interest, but security risks remain elevated. Regulatory and legal headlines—such as the antitrust suit against major asset managers over ESG practices—could also drive sector-specific volatility8.

Geopolitical developments, including Russia’s new buffer zone on the Ukraine border12 and Iran’s warnings over Israeli threats13, add to headline risk but have not materially shifted U.S. markets intraday. Into the close, watch for further moves in rates, large-cap tech, and any late-breaking fiscal or geopolitical headlines.