TL;DR

Iran-Israel conflict escalates; U.S. weighs intervention; SNB cuts rate to zero; Fed faces political pressure.

Highlights

• Iran launched over 20 ballistic missiles at Israel, hitting Soroka Hospital and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange; Israel escalated retaliatory strikes, including on Iran’s Arak nuclear reactor2436.
• Trump administration is actively weighing a U.S. military strike on Iran, with preparations for a possible weekend operation; Iran threatens retaliation if the U.S. intervenes15.
• U.S. State Department evacuates nonessential embassy staff from Israel; Americans in Israel advised to consider departing7.
• Swiss National Bank cut policy rate to 0% on weak inflation and exports, warning of risks in global asset valuations8.
• Bank of England kept rates at 4.25% with a dovish 6-3 split, indicating possible further easing9.
• President Trump increased public criticism of Fed Chair Powell, demanding rate cuts after the Fed held steady10.
• U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, advancing federal stablecoin regulation; Trump urges rapid House passage13.
• EU Advocate General backed a €4.1B antitrust fine against Google , increasing legal pressure on U.S. tech firms11.
• EU explores a UK-style trade pact with the U.S. to delay tariff escalation tied to new U.S. China tariffs12.
• BYD’s €20,000 EV undercuts European rivals, gaining market share despite new EU duties14.
• Sol Strategies seeks Nasdaq listing, highlighting institutional interest in Solana-based crypto exposure19.
• North Korea fired over 10 rockets after U.S.-South Korea-Japan air drills; South Korea’s spy chief nominee says U.S. would respond with nuclear force if North Korea used nukes1516.

Commentary

Middle East risk is front and center as Iran’s missile barrage hit both civilian and financial targets in Israel, including a major hospital and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange24. Israel responded with intensified strikes on Tehran, notably the Arak nuclear facility36. The U.S. administration is weighing direct military options, with preparations reportedly underway1, and Iran has warned it will retaliate if the U.S. intervenes5. The State Department’s evacuation of nonessential embassy staff from Israel signals real concern over further escalation7. These developments increase the risk of broader regional conflict and could drive safe-haven flows into U.S. Treasuries, gold , and the dollar, while pressuring equities, particularly in sectors exposed to geopolitical volatility such as energy, defense, and airlines56.

Central bank policy remains in focus. The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to zero amid soft inflation and weak export data, and flagged risks tied to high asset valuations and U.S. equities8. The Bank of England held rates but showed a more dovish tilt than expected9. Meanwhile, President Trump is ramping up pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, even as the Fed remains on hold due to persistent inflation and tariff-related uncertainty10. The global tilt toward easier policy could support U.S. risk assets if geopolitical risks subside, but for now, market direction is likely to be dominated by Middle East headlines.

On the regulatory front, the U.S. Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act moves the country closer to a federal stablecoin framework, potentially boosting institutional adoption of digital assets13. Sol Strategies’ Nasdaq listing plans underscore growing interest in Solana-linked vehicles19. In tech, the EU’s Advocate General backing of a €4.1B fine against Google adds to regulatory headwinds for U.S. multinationals11. The EU’s effort to negotiate a UK-style trade pact with the U.S. could temporarily ease transatlantic tariff pressures, but uncertainty remains high as the July deadline for new tariffs approaches12.

Traders should watch for any U.S. military movement in the Middle East, as this would likely trigger a risk-off response across asset classes15. Oil, defense, and safe-haven assets are likely to remain volatile. Central bank commentary and U.S. political pressure on rates will also be key in the coming sessions.