TL;DR

Ukraine-Russia talks set; UK sanctions Russian energy; BOJ resumes USD liquidity; gold, ETH rally.

Highlights

• Ukraine and Russia to hold first direct peace talks in seven weeks on July 23 in Turkey; focus on prisoner swaps and cease-fire groundwork, but Moscow's participation is not yet confirmed1.
• UK imposes 137 new sanctions on Russian energy, targeting 135 oil tankers and key trading firms; EU adds sanctions on Iranian oil traders and Russian diesel, with new diesel restrictions effective January 20262.
• Putin transfers authority for foreign ship approvals at Russian ports to the FSB, tightening maritime controls amid recent tanker incidents and sanctions pressure4.
• Bank of Japan to resume U.S. dollar liquidity operations from July 24, launching 800 billion yen in securities lending to address domestic liquidity shortages5.
• India and UK set to sign a major tariff-cutting trade pact next week, reducing duties on whisky and cars, and expanding market access for textiles and EVs6.
• Trump threatens 35% tariffs on Canadian exports from August 1; Canada and U.S. senators discuss CUSMA renegotiation as deadline approaches7.
• China’s coking coal futures surge nearly 8% on regulatory mine shutdowns; CSI 300 index hits year high, broad gains in metals and silicon8.
• Gold nears $3,400/oz and silver tops $39/oz, with strong ETF inflows and mining stocks rallying9.
• SEC Chair states Ether is not a security; Ethereum ETFs see $2.18B weekly inflows, ETH trades near $3,8001420.
• JPMorgan considers direct Bitcoin - and Ethereum -backed loans, reflecting increased institutional engagement with crypto collateral15.
• BYD delays Hungary EV plant to 2026, shifts production focus to Turkey for tariff-free EU access11.
• RBA minutes show split over rate cuts; further easing possible but contingent on upcoming inflation and labor data19.

Commentary

Geopolitics continues to drive market risk, with Ukraine-Russia peace talks scheduled in Turkey but little clarity on Moscow’s participation1. The UK’s latest sanctions on Russian energy logistics—targeting both shadow fleet tankers and major trading entities—add to the pressure on Russian export revenues2. The EU’s new measures against Iranian oil traders and upcoming Russian diesel restrictions further complicate global energy flows2, while Putin’s move to place the FSB in charge of foreign ship approvals signals tighter Russian maritime controls4. These developments are likely to keep energy and shipping markets volatile, with potential knock-on effects for European and global commodity prices.

Central bank actions remain in focus. The Bank of Japan’s renewed U.S. dollar liquidity operations and securities lending underscore ongoing funding strains in Japan, with possible implications for USD/JPY and regional liquidity5. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a divided board, with further rate cuts on the table but dependent on upcoming inflation and labor data19. The Australian dollar remains sensitive to both domestic policy signals and external trade risks, especially as U.S. trade policy uncertainty persists19.

Trade policy shifts are front and center. The India-UK FTA, expected to be signed next week, will lower barriers for autos, spirits, and textiles, supporting supply chain diversification and sector-specific equities6. In North America, Trump’s tariff threats against Canadian exports and the scramble to renegotiate CUSMA introduce headline risk for CAD , Canadian exporters, and North American equities7. BYD’s pivot from Hungary to Turkey for EV production highlights how automakers are adjusting to evolving tariff regimes and cost structures to maintain EU market access11.

Commodities and crypto see continued momentum. China’s regulatory clampdown on overproduction has triggered sharp rallies in coking coal, silicon, and metals, boosting related equities and the CSI 300 index8. Gold and silver are near multi-year highs, benefiting from safe-haven flows and ETF demand9. In crypto, the SEC’s clarification that Ether is not a security has removed a major regulatory overhang, fueling record ETF inflows and institutional adoption1420. JPMorgan ’s exploration of crypto-backed loans signals further mainstreaming of digital assets, with potential implications for credit markets and crypto valuations15.

Traders should monitor developments from the Ukraine-Russia talks1, evolving sanctions and trade negotiations27, and central bank liquidity actions519. Expect continued volatility in commodities, energy, and crypto, with macro data and policy headlines driving cross-asset moves.