TL;DR

Trump holds firm on tariffs; debt ceiling deadline looms; U.S.-China trade talks keep markets cautious.

Highlights

• Trump administration maintains 10% baseline tariff on all trading partners, rules out unilateral China tariff cuts, and signals sector-by-sector trade deals; tariffs could rise to 40% for some countries1.
• Wall Street closes mixed ahead of U.S.-China trade talks; S&P 500 -0.08%, Nasdaq -0.01%, Dow -0.31%3.
• U.S. sets trade talks with ~20 economies, announces draft UK deal; high-tariff approach aims to drive manufacturing back to U.S.12.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns Trump’s tariffs are overly aggressive, could raise inflation and slow growth, but notes positive steps in trade diplomacy13.
• Treasury Secretary urges Congress to raise debt ceiling by mid-July as cash reserves drop below $600B; default risk by August if unresolved2.
• Trump signs executive orders repealing Biden-era appliance energy rules and easing other regulations, targeting inflation and regulatory burden10.
• Administration plans to quadruple U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2050; Oklo shares +4.8% on news9.
• Petrobras announces second contaminant-free oil discovery in Brazil’s Aram block, Santos Basin11.
• U.S. Embassy in Kyiv issues rare warning of possible major air attack; Iran prepares to ship missile launchers to Russia, deepening Russia-Iran military ties45.
• Israeli airstrikes hit Yemen’s Ras Issa oil port after Houthi missile attack; Pakistan closes airspace amid military escalation with India, which deploys BrahMos-equipped warships near Karachi678.
• FDA approves Teal Wand, first prescription at-home cervical cancer screening test, launching in California in June15.

Commentary

Trade and fiscal policy remain front and center for U.S. markets. The Trump administration’s confirmation of a 10% baseline tariff on all trading partners, with sector-by-sector negotiations and the possibility of even higher rates, reinforces a protectionist stance1. The administration’s strategy—using tariffs to extract concessions and encourage domestic manufacturing—extends to new trade talks with roughly 20 economies, including a draft deal with the UK12. While some investors had hoped for tariff relief, the White House’s messaging suggests only incremental change, keeping global trade uncertainty elevated13. JPMorgan ’s Jamie Dimon flagged the risk that aggressive tariffs could drive up inflation and weigh on growth, even as he acknowledged recent diplomatic progress13.

Fiscal risk is also in focus. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s warning that the U.S. could exhaust extraordinary measures by August, and his call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling by mid-July, introduces headline risk for Treasuries and risk assets2. With cash reserves now below $600 billion, any signs of political gridlock could quickly move rates and credit spreads2.

On the regulatory front, Trump’s new executive orders rolling back appliance energy standards and other regulations are pitched as inflation-fighting and growth-supportive measures1014. The administration’s plan to quadruple nuclear power capacity by 2050, including a potential overhaul of the NRC and military deployment of new reactors, gave a lift to nuclear energy equities, notably Oklo9. Meanwhile, Petrobras ’s latest oil discovery in Brazil’s pre-salt basin may support further investment interest in energy and commodities11.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated. The U.S. Embassy’s rare warning of a possible major air attack in Kyiv and Iran’s move to supply missile launchers to Russia signal persistent instability in Eastern Europe45. In the Middle East and South Asia, Israeli strikes on Yemen’s oil infrastructure and India-Pakistan military escalation—including Pakistan’s airspace closure and Indian naval deployments—raise the risk of regional supply disruptions, with potential implications for oil and defense sectors678.

Traders should monitor developments from the U.S.-China trade talks, progress on the debt ceiling, and any escalation in geopolitical hotspots1234567812. Equities may remain rangebound until there is more clarity on trade and fiscal fronts, while commodities and defense-related assets could see increased volatility.