TL;DR

EU tightens Russian oil sanctions; Chevron-Hess deal cleared; Amex, Schwab beat Q2 estimates.

Highlights

• EU enacts 18th sanctions package on Russia, lowering crude oil price cap to ~$48/bbl and expanding financial/shipping restrictions; Brent futures up modestly 1.
• Chevron cleared to acquire Hess for $53B after arbitration ruling; Chevron shares +3.6% pre-market, Hess +7.4%, Exxon slightly lower 3.
• American Express Q2 earnings and revenue beat estimates on record card spending; full-year outlook maintained 4.
• Charles Schwab Q2 results top forecasts as trading surges; client assets and new accounts rise, bank deposits down 5% YoY 5.
• Crypto market cap surpasses $4T, led by altcoin rally and US stablecoin regulation progress; large Bitcoin transfer to Galaxy Digital noted, no price impact yet 611.
• China injects 1.3T yuan into banks amid capital outflows and currency non-convertibility concerns; retail sales projected above ¥50T in 2025 28.
• Japan’s household spending up 4.7% YoY, core inflation at 3.3%; BOJ policy meeting in focus 7.
• BP sells US onshore wind unit to LS Power, signaling renewed focus on oil and gas amid $20B divestment plan 10.
• US and Indonesia reach provisional trade deal: US tariffs on Indonesian goods cut to 19%, Indonesia grants broad duty-free access to US products; key commodity exemptions still under negotiation 9.
• Spanish mortgage approvals surge 54% in May; UK mortgage approvals also strong, highlighting resilient European housing demand 14.
• Germany’s Chancellor Merz rejects EU-wide corporate tax and joint borrowing, warns of tough EU budget talks 13.
• US designates Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy as terrorist group after Kashmir attack; Trump directs DOJ to seek release of Epstein grand jury testimony 1516.

Commentary

Energy headlines are likely to drive early US trading. The EU’s new Russian oil price cap (~$48/bbl) and expanded sanctions have nudged Brent higher, signaling potential for further volatility in crude and energy equities, especially as the US sits out the new cap 1. Chevron ’s arbitration win clears the path for its $53B Hess deal, unlocking access to Guyana’s Stabroek Block and providing a near-term catalyst for both Chevron and Hess shares 3. BP ’s sale of its US wind unit to LS Power reinforces a sector trend of oil majors prioritizing core hydrocarbon assets over renewables in response to shareholder pressure 10.

US financials are set for a positive open after strong Q2 results from American Express and Charles Schwab . Both firms beat consensus on the back of robust consumer spending and increased trading activity, with Schwab also reporting strong client asset growth and new account openings 45. However, Schwab ’s decline in bank deposits highlights ongoing shifts toward higher-yielding products, a trend to monitor for broader deposit-sensitive names 5.

Macro signals from Asia are mixed. China’s large liquidity injection underscores ongoing capital outflow and FX concerns, even as retail sales and FDI remain solid 28. Japan’s surprise jump in household spending and persistent core inflation keep the BOJ’s late-July meeting in focus for potential policy adjustments 7. These developments may influence US rates and currency markets if global risk sentiment shifts.

Crypto markets remain buoyant, with total capitalization topping $4T on altcoin strength and new US stablecoin regulation 6. Large-scale Bitcoin transfers, including a $9.6B move to Galaxy Digital, have not yet impacted prices, but traders should monitor for any follow-on volatility 11. European housing data remains firm 14, while political headlines in the US (terror designations, Epstein case) are unlikely to move markets but could add to background noise 1516.