TL;DR

US, China, and EU escalate trade barriers; Russia intensifies Ukraine attacks; Ecuador halts oil exports.

Highlights

• US to impose new tariffs (10–70%) on 10–12 countries from August 1; only UK and Vietnam exempt so far 1.
• US-Vietnam trade deal enacts 40% tariff on transshipped goods; apparel stocks in Vietnam rally 13.
• China imposes 27.7–34.9% tariffs on EU brandy; waivers for select producers with minimum price deals 2.
• China shortens rare-earth export licenses for Europe; Germany warns of further trade strain 3.
• US lifts GE Aerospace jet engine export ban to China; both sides ease some tech and commodity curbs 193.
• SEBI bars Jane Street from Indian markets, seizes $567M after index manipulation probe; Indian brokers fall 4.
• Ecuador halts oil exports due to pipeline shutdowns from heavy rains, cutting output by 133,000 bpd 5.
• Russia launches record 539-drone attack on Kyiv; Dutch, German intel report surge in Russian chemical weapons use 67.
• Germany seeks US Patriots for Ukraine, plans €25B tank/vehicle order to reinforce NATO 815.
• Japan’s GPIF posts ¥8.8T Q1 loss on yen weakness and global asset declines 10.
• Dormant Bitcoin whale moves $2.2B after 14 years, raising speculation on crypto flows 20.
• Microsoft exits Pakistan amid political instability and global restructuring 17.

Commentary

Trade policy is tightening across major economies. The US will implement steep new tariffs on a dozen countries from August 1, reviving a previously suspended package and targeting partners that have not reached bilateral deals 1. The US-Vietnam agreement, with its 40% tariff on transshipped goods, underscores Washington’s focus on blocking indirect Chinese exports and further integrating Vietnam into US supply chains 13. Meanwhile, China is escalating its own trade measures, imposing new tariffs on EU brandy 2 and tightening rare-earth export licensing for Europe, with Germany warning of worsening relations 3. The US and China are also selectively easing some restrictions, as seen with the resumption of GE jet engine exports 19 and relaxed curbs on certain tech and commodities 3, signaling a tactical—rather than structural—de-escalation.

Geopolitical risk remains high. Russia’s record drone assault on Kyiv 6 and confirmed expanded use of chemical weapons mark a significant escalation in the Ukraine conflict 7. Germany is responding with a major €25 billion rearmament plan and is in talks with the US to supply Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine 815, reflecting Europe’s urgency to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. These developments keep energy and defense sectors in focus, especially as Ecuador’s total oil export halt due to pipeline disruptions tightens global crude supply and could support prices in the near term 5.

In markets, regulatory scrutiny is rising. India’s SEBI has barred Jane Street from trading and seized $567 million after uncovering index manipulation, pressuring Indian brokerage stocks and signaling tighter oversight of complex trading strategies in emerging markets 4. Japan’s GPIF reported a sharp Q1 loss driven by yen weakness and broad asset declines 10, highlighting ongoing challenges for global asset allocators. In crypto, the movement of a long-dormant Bitcoin whale has raised speculation about potential large-scale sales or shifts in market sentiment 20.

Traders should monitor for further trade retaliation, energy supply disruptions, and regulatory actions impacting market structure. Export-sensitive equities, commodities (oil, rare earths), and currencies exposed to trade and capital flows (JPY, CNY, INR) remain especially sensitive to headline risk.