TL;DR

U.S. weighs Russia oil sanctions; Trump–Putin talks yield no Ukraine deal; Treasuries hit record foreign demand.

Highlights

• U.S. weighs direct sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, raising risk of global oil supply disruption if Ukraine talks stall 1.
• Trump–Putin Alaska summit ends without Ukraine cease-fire; both sides report progress but no deal 2.
• White House cancels planned U.S.–Russia luncheon; Trump departs Anchorage with no immediate breakthrough 11.
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries reach record $9.13 trillion in June, with Japan and UK increasing exposure 3.
• CBO warns Trump’s new tax law could trigger up to $491B in Medicare cuts without Congressional action 5.
• Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy receives FDA accelerated approval for MASH, driving 5–6% post-market share gain 4.
• OpenAI staffers seek $6B secondary share sale at a $500B valuation, potentially surpassing SpaceX as top private startup 7.
• Gemini files for Nasdaq IPO despite $283M H1 net loss, betting on new wallet and product diversification 8.
• U.S. appeals court pauses order requiring Argentina to surrender its YPF stake, giving time to appeal $16.1B judgment 6.
• Canadian PM Carney to visit Mexico in September for trade talks amid new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods 9.
• Higgsfield AI launches free instant product-placement video tool, targeting advertising and content production markets 13.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated as the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska ended without a Ukraine cease-fire, though both sides indicated progress and willingness to continue talks 2. The lack of a breakthrough keeps pressure on energy markets, especially as the U.S. considers direct sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil 1. If implemented, these measures could disrupt global crude flows and add upward pressure to oil prices, with knock-on effects for inflation-sensitive sectors and European equities 1.

Fixed income markets saw continued strong foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, with holdings reaching a new high in June 3. This persistent appetite, particularly from Japan and the UK, may help stabilize yields for now, but the CBO’s warning on potential Medicare cuts tied to Trump’s tax law highlights growing fiscal risks 5. While Congress has previously waived such automatic cuts, the issue could inject volatility into rates and policy-sensitive sectors as budget negotiations approach 5.

In equities, Novo Nordisk’s expanded FDA label for Wegovy strengthens the GLP-1 segment and drove notable after-hours gains, supporting the healthcare and biotech space 4. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s pursuit of a $500B valuation in a secondary share sale and Gemini’s IPO filing reflect ongoing investor interest in AI and digital assets, although profitability and regulatory clarity remain key concerns for these sectors 78. Higgsfield AI’s new video tool signals further disruption potential in advertising and media 13.

Elsewhere, the U.S. appeals court’s stay on Argentina’s YPF asset transfer provides temporary relief for the country but leaves sovereign risk unresolved 6. Trade developments remain in focus as Canada and Mexico coordinate responses to new U.S. tariffs, which could impact North American supply chains and select industrials 9.