TL;DR

Iran–Israel tensions spike oil and freight; SNB cuts to zero; EU bans Chinese medical devices.

Highlights

• Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz as Israel–Iran conflict escalates; Brent crude up 11%, tanker rates surge 1.
• Iranian missile reportedly strikes Microsoft facility in Israel after Israeli raids on Iranian cities 6.
• U.S. Senate Intelligence Chair signals possible imminent action against Iran’s Fordow nuclear site 7.
• Swiss National Bank cuts rates to 0%, signals possible negative rates by year-end to curb franc strength amid deflation 2.
• Japan’s core inflation rises to 3.7% YoY, increasing pressure on BOJ for further rate hikes despite weak growth 4.
• PBOC holds loan prime rates steady after May’s cut; further targeted easing expected later in 2025 3.
• Taiwan reports largest Chinese air incursion since October; Japan sends destroyer through Taiwan Strait after near-miss with Chinese fighter 519.
• EU bars Chinese medical-device firms from large public tenders, escalating trade tensions ahead of July EU–China summit 10.
• Niger nationalizes Orano-run Somair uranium mine, raising global uranium supply risks and deepening rift with France 8.
• EDF warns French nuclear output may be cut from June 25 due to heat wave, risking tighter European power supply 9.
• Canada threatens higher tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum by July 21 if no deal is reached 11.
• Visa expands stablecoin program to EMEA via Yellow Card partnership, advancing crypto adoption in global payments 20.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk in the Middle East is driving renewed volatility in energy and freight markets. Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, following missile exchanges with Israel and U.S. warnings over Iran’s nuclear program, has pushed Brent crude up 11% and sharply increased tanker rates 167. Any further escalation could disrupt global oil and LNG flows, with immediate impact on energy prices, inflation expectations, and shipping equities. The risk of broader military involvement remains a key variable for commodities and regional currencies 167.

Central bank policy divergence is in focus. The Swiss National Bank’s return to a zero-rate policy, with negative rates possible by year-end, highlights deflationary pressures in Switzerland and could influence other European central banks 2. In contrast, Japan’s core inflation continues to overshoot the BOJ ’s target, intensifying debate over the pace of future rate hikes despite weak GDP 4. The PBOC ’s decision to hold rates steady indicates a cautious approach, with further easing likely to come via liquidity measures rather than broad cuts 3. These moves will drive FX volatility, particularly in the franc , yen , and yuan 234.

Trade and supply-chain risks are rising. The EU’s procurement ban on Chinese medical devices and Niger’s nationalization of a major uranium mine both signal heightened protectionism and resource nationalism 810. These developments may pressure European healthcare and nuclear utility stocks, and could support uranium prices 810. Canada’s threat to raise tariffs on U.S. metals adds to North American trade uncertainty, with potential implications for industrials and commodity-linked currencies 11.

In Asia, military tensions remain elevated. The record Chinese air incursions over Taiwan, coupled with Japan’s naval transit through the Taiwan Strait , highlight persistent security risks in the region 519. While not yet moving markets directly, these events could weigh on regional equities and support defense-related sectors, especially as the EU boosts EIB lending for defense and technology 51519.

Visa ’s expansion of its stablecoin program into EMEA, in partnership with Yellow Card, underscores ongoing institutional adoption of crypto for cross-border payments 20. This may support sentiment for select fintech and digital asset names as blockchain integration deepens in mainstream finance 20.