TL;DR

US yields fall on weak data; US blocks ethane exports to China; Nvidia, Robinhood hit records.

Highlights

• US 10-year Treasury yield drops 10bps to 4.35% on weak services and payroll data; largest single-day decline since April 1.
• ECB set to cut rates by 25bps to 2%, eighth cut in cycle; euro up 3% YTD 2.
• Procter & Gamble to cut 7,000 office jobs (15% of white-collar staff), citing $1–1.5B in tariff costs and weak demand 3.
• US blocks 2.2M barrels of ethane exports to China (Enterprise , Energy Transfer impacted) in response to Chinese rare earth curbs; US ethane market and China petrochemicals at risk 6.
• Suzuki halts Japan Swift production due to rare earth shortages from China’s export controls 11.
• Citigroup to cut 3,500 tech jobs in China as part of global restructuring; other global banks also reducing headcount 4.
• Nvidia posts 69% YoY revenue surge; Blackwell chips set new AI training records; Wistron and Foxconn report strong sales 18.
• Robinhood shares hit record high above $70, platform assets surpass $250B in May; crypto trading up 30% MoM 20.
• Wise to shift primary listing to the US, maintaining secondary in London; shares rise on news 5.
• US pushes NATO allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP ahead of The Hague summit 10.
• US vetoes UN Security Council Gaza ceasefire resolution; Israeli fire at Gaza aid site kills 31, White House reviewing 1312.
• IEA forecasts record $3.3T global energy investment in 2025, $2.2T in clean energy; fossil fuel investment to decline 15.

Commentary

US markets open amid a notable drop in Treasury yields, with the 10-year falling to 4.35% after softer-than-expected services and private payroll data 1. This move reflects growing concerns about US economic momentum and may revive discussions around Fed rate cuts. The ECB is widely expected to deliver its eighth consecutive 25bp cut to 2%, but with euro strength and muted European equity gains, most easing appears priced in 2. Watch for any shifts in ECB guidance and upcoming US labor data for rate path clues.

Trade and supply chain disruptions remain a key risk. The US is blocking ethane exports to China, escalating tensions after China’s rare earth restrictions. This is already impacting US energy exporters like Enterprise and Energy Transfer and threatens Chinese petrochemical supply chains, with Suzuki’s production halt in Japan underscoring the vulnerability of global manufacturing to commodity and component shortages 611. Procter & Gamble ’s large-scale job cuts and brand rationalization, citing tariffs and weak demand, highlight the pressure on multinationals from trade policy and shifting consumer trends 3. Citigroup’s tech layoffs in China, part of a broader global reduction, reflect cost-cutting efforts as banks adapt to a tougher macro and regulatory environment 4.

Tech and fintech momentum continues, led by Nvidia ’s 69% YoY revenue surge and new AI chip benchmarks, which are driving strong results for suppliers like Wistron and Foxconn 18. Robinhood’s record platform assets and sharp increase in crypto trading volumes signal robust retail engagement 20. Wise’s decision to move its primary listing to the US further illustrates the appeal of US capital markets for high-growth firms 5.

Geopolitical and policy headlines remain in focus. The US is pressing NATO allies for a significant increase in defense spending 10, while the humanitarian situation in Gaza intensifies, with the US vetoing a UN ceasefire resolution and the White House reviewing reports of Israeli fire at an aid site 1312. Meanwhile, the IEA projects record global energy investment in 2025, with clean energy outpacing fossil fuels for the first time since the pandemic 15.

Traders should monitor bond market moves, sector rotation away from trade-exposed industrials, continued strength in AI/tech, and volatility in energy and commodities as supply chain and geopolitical risks evolve.