TL;DR

US GDP revised up, Nvidia’s AI growth slows, Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Indian imports.

Highlights

• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.1%; core PCE inflation steady at 2.6%, above Fed target; jobless claims stable; Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed Governor Waller’s speech1.
• Nvidia posts record $46.7B Q2 revenue (+56% YoY), but data-center sales slightly miss; shares down 2–3% after hours as AI growth moderates2.
• Trump administration imposes 50% tariffs on Indian imports to pressure Russian oil flows; oil markets volatile, WTI near $643.
• Best Buy beats Q2 estimates but maintains cautious FY outlook due to tariff and margin concerns; shares down ~4% pre-market9.
• TSMC and Amkor to build major chip packaging facility in Arizona; Apple to secure half of TSMC’s 2nm output; 1.4nm fab to break ground in Taiwan10.
• White House fires CDC chief Monarez after vaccine policy clash with RFK Jr.; top CDC officials resign; FDA narrows Covid-19 vaccine authorization to high-risk groups5.
• Berkshire Hathaway raises Mitsubishi stake above 10%, increasing influence in Japanese trading houses12.
• Pemex’s Dos Bocas refinery outage shifts Maya crude processing to Deer Park, Texas, highlighting operational risk8.
• BYD overtakes Tesla in European EV sales as July registrations rise 5.9%; battery-electric and plug-in hybrid demand strong15.
• American Bitcoin, backed by Trump’s sons, to list on Nasdaq in September via merger; Ark Invest adds $15.6M of BitMine as Ether nears record highs1620.
• China to cut over 90M tonnes of coal-based steel output by 2026, cap coal production, and accelerate domestic iron ore projects6.

Commentary

US macro data remain firm with Q2 GDP revised up and core PCE inflation holding above target, keeping pressure on the Fed as yields climb ahead of Governor Waller’s speech1. The market’s focus is on whether the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, especially with inflation still above 2%. Stable jobless claims and subdued pending home sales point to a resilient but mixed consumer backdrop1. The ECB’s warning about political pressure on the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty for rates and the dollar7.

In equities, Nvidia ’s strong headline quarter was tempered by a slight miss in data-center sales and signs of moderating AI demand, triggering a modest pullback in the stock2. Best Buy ’s beat was overshadowed by management’s cautious outlook on tariffs and margins, reflecting broader retail sector concerns about US-China trade policy and consumer sensitivity to higher prices9. TSMC ’s US expansion and Apple ’s large 2nm chip allocation reinforce the ongoing US tech supply chain buildout, with implications for US semiconductor and equipment names10.

Geopolitical and commodity risks are front and center. Trump’s new tariffs on Indian imports to curb Russian oil revenues have injected fresh volatility into crude, with WTI oscillating around $643. The move could disrupt global supply chains if India retaliates or shifts sourcing3. The Pemex Dos Bocas outage8 and China’s planned steel and coal output cuts6 add further complexity to commodity flows and pricing, with potential knock-on effects for US energy and materials sectors.

Healthcare faces renewed uncertainty after the White House removed the CDC chief following a policy dispute with RFK Jr., triggering multiple high-level resignations and a narrowing of vaccine guidance5. This may weigh on healthcare sentiment and policy visibility. Meanwhile, crypto-related equities could see activity with American Bitcoin’s upcoming Nasdaq listing16 and Ark Invest’s increased stake in BitMine as Ether approaches record highs20.