TL;DR

Nvidia halts China chip output; Google wins $10B Meta AI deal; dollar, yields rise pre-Powell.

Highlights

• • Nvidia halts H20 AI chip production after China curbs purchases in response to recent U.S. comments, despite new U.S. export license approval 12.
• Google Cloud lands a $10B+ six-year deal to supply Meta with Nvidia-powered AI infrastructure, boosting its position in the cloud market 3.
• Dollar strengthens and Treasury yields rise as traders cut Fed rate-cut bets; CME sees 73% odds for a September cut ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech 4.
• Boston Fed’s Collins signals openness to a September rate cut, highlighting divisions within the Fed and tariff-related economic risks 18.
• Japan’s core inflation stays at 3.1%, above BOJ’s target; Finance Ministry raises bond assumed rate to 2.6%, highest in 17 years 56.
• Germany’s Q2 GDP revised down to -0.3%, pointing to renewed recession risks in Europe 7.
• U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on EU wine and spirits, expected to raise prices and impact imports 10.
• Pentagon issues $500M tender to build a cobalt stockpile, aiming to reduce reliance on China for key minerals 9.
• BlackRock rotates out of Bitcoin and into Ethereum ETFs, driving record daily inflows into Ether funds 12.
• Suspected pump-and-dump schemes erase $3.7B in US-listed Chinese microcaps, drawing FBI and SEC attention 11.
• Cenovus to acquire MEG Energy for C$7.9B, creating Canada’s largest oil-sands producer 14.
• President Trump to make an unscheduled Oval Office announcement at noon ET; details unknown 20.

Commentary

US markets face a mixed start as traders digest a confluence of tech, macro, and policy headlines. Nvidia ’s halt of H20 chip production in China, following regulatory pushback despite a fresh US export license, highlights ongoing US-China tech friction and clouds the outlook for chipmakers with China exposure 12. Meanwhile, Google’s $10B+ cloud deal with Meta underscores continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure, providing a tailwind for cloud and semiconductor suppliers even as geopolitical risks persist 3.

Macro sentiment is cautious. The US dollar is firmer and Treasury yields are higher as traders reduce expectations for near-term Fed easing, with CME odds for a September cut now at 73% 4. Boston Fed President Collins’ openness to a cut contrasts with more hawkish colleagues, reflecting internal Fed divisions 18. Attention is squarely on Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks for further policy signals. Abroad, persistent inflation in Japan and a higher assumed government bond rate point to tighter BOJ policy 56, while Germany’s deeper GDP contraction signals ongoing European growth headwinds 7.

On the policy and commodity front, a new 15% US tariff on EU wine and spirits is set to raise prices and could dampen import volumes 10, while the Pentagon’s $500M cobalt stockpile tender aims to secure supply chains away from China, with potential implications for industrial metals markets 9. In crypto, BlackRock’s allocation shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum ETFs is driving record inflows into Ether, reflecting evolving institutional preferences 12.

Traders should monitor Powell’s speech for rate direction, Nvidia and AI sector moves for tech sentiment, and any market reaction to Trump’s unscheduled noon announcement 20. Volatility in microcap Chinese stocks and shifts in crypto flows also warrant attention 1112.