TL;DR

Nvidia halts China chip sales; US-EU set 15% tariff cap, $750B energy deal; China tightens rare earths.

Highlights

• • Nvidia halts H20 AI chip production after China blocks purchases in response to US official's remarks 1.
• US and EU agree on a 15% tariff ceiling for most goods, $750B EU energy purchases from US, and expanded US market access; wine and spirits remain excluded 217.
• China issues 17-point rules to tighten rare earth production controls, reinforcing state quotas across the supply chain 3.
• Germany’s Q2 GDP revised down to -0.3%, confirming renewed recession risk; capital spending and exports both fell 6.
• Eurozone wage growth accelerates to 3.95% YoY, complicating ECB ’s rate-cut outlook 18.
• Japan’s Finance Ministry raises assumed bond rate to 2.6% for FY26/27, highest in 17 years, signaling higher debt costs 7.
• Pentagon launches $500M cobalt stockpile tender, prioritizing non-Chinese suppliers; follows US moves to secure critical minerals 8.
• Chevron resumes Venezuelan crude shipments to the US under a restricted Treasury license, after a three-month pause 9.
• UK and US tighten sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping networks, targeting revenue streams and shipping vessels 4.
• EU accelerates digital euro plans, considering Ethereum /Solana public blockchains after US stablecoin legislation 10.
• Kazakhstan orders oil majors to pay $4B pollution fine within 40 days, renewing tensions with foreign energy investors 12.
• Russian strikes hit US-owned Flex factory in Ukraine; no Putin–Zelensky summit planned as fighting intensifies 1520.

Commentary

US-China tech tensions have escalated with China’s informal ban on Nvidia ’s H20 chip, prompting Nvidia to halt production 1. This move highlights the fragility of global semiconductor supply chains and may pressure related tech equities, especially those with significant China exposure 1. It also adds momentum to China’s domestic chip development efforts, while US suppliers to Nvidia could see order disruptions 1.

The new US-EU trade framework lowers tariffs on most goods to 15% and unlocks major EU commitments to purchase US energy and AI chips, supporting US LNG, energy, and semiconductor sectors 2. However, unresolved issues in wine, spirits, and metals persist, and the $1-per-drink tariff impact could dent European exporters’ margins 217. At the same time, Germany’s deeper GDP contraction and accelerating eurozone wage growth complicate the ECB ’s policy path, potentially delaying further rate cuts and keeping European yields elevated 618.

On the commodities front, China’s tighter rare earth controls and the Pentagon’s cobalt stockpiling signal strategic moves to secure critical mineral supply chains 38. This could support prices for non-Chinese rare earth and cobalt producers 38. Chevron ’s limited resumption of Venezuelan crude shipments offers modest relief to US refiners, but broader oil flows remain constrained by ongoing sanctions and geopolitical frictions, including new UK/US measures against Iran and Kazakhstan’s renewed pressure on foreign oil majors 4912.

Japan’s move to raise the assumed bond rate reflects rising funding costs and fiscal strain as JGB yields climb 7. Currency markets may see continued volatility: the euro faces mixed signals from wage growth and weak German data, while the yen remains under pressure from higher Japanese yields 6718. Crypto traders should watch the EU’s digital euro initiative, which could boost public blockchain adoption if implemented 10.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with intensified Russian strikes in Ukraine and no progress on ceasefire talks 1520. Traders should monitor further developments in US-China tech policy, eurozone inflation data, and commodity supply chain disruptions.