Highlights

• Trump administration reportedly considers cutting China tariffs from 145% to 50–54% ahead of Swiss trade talks; China grants exemptions on some US imports 1.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick signals dozens of new trade deals by July 8, with Asia and Latin America as key targets; 10% baseline tariff to remain 8.
• President Trump proposes raising top tax rate to 39.6% for incomes above $2.5M and closing carried interest loophole, facing GOP pushback 3.
• Trump calls for unconditional 30-day Russia-Ukraine cease-fire, threatening further sanctions for violations; Russia yet to respond 2.
• Coinbase Q1 2025 earnings miss on EPS and revenue but show strong institutional trading and asset growth; stablecoin revenue up 32% 4.
• Lyft beats Q1 EPS expectations, posts record rides and positive net income, boosts buyback to $750M after activist pressure; shares jump 8% after hours 5.
• Meta Platforms in talks with crypto firms to deploy stablecoins, hires crypto-experienced VP, signaling renewed push into digital assets 7.
• Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky sentenced to 12 years in prison and $48M forfeiture for fraud after platform’s $5B collapse 6.
• Defense Secretary Hegseth orders removal of up to 1,000 transgender troops by June 6, following Supreme Court approval 10.
• NOAA retires its billion-dollar weather disaster database (1980–2024) under Trump administration, impacting climate data transparency 11.
• Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost elected as Pope Leo XIV, first American pontiff, emphasizing social justice and continuity with Pope Francis 13.
• Trump appoints Fox host Jeanine Pirro as interim US Attorney for DC, replacing Ed Martin after failed Senate confirmation 9.

Commentary

US-China trade relations are back in focus as reports suggest the Trump administration may sharply reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with Beijing reciprocating through selective exemptions 1. This signals a potential thaw ahead of critical Swiss negotiations and aligns with Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s broader push for new trade agreements, especially across Asia and Latin America 8. The prospect of a tariff rollback and new deals could provide relief to global supply chains and exporters, supporting risk appetite in equities—particularly industrials, semiconductors, and multinationals with China exposure. However, the 10% baseline tariff signals that protectionism remains a floor, and the pace of de-escalation will be key for market sentiment 8.

In Washington, Trump’s proposal to raise the top tax rate and close the carried interest loophole faces resistance within the GOP, highlighting internal party tensions on fiscal policy 3. While the proposal is unlikely to pass in its current form, the headline risk could weigh on high-net-worth-focused financials and private equity, while potentially supporting sentiment for social-justice-oriented sectors. Meanwhile, the administration’s renewed efforts on Russia-Ukraine diplomacy—with a call for a 30-day cease-fire and threat of new sanctions—inject uncertainty into energy and defense stocks, as any movement toward peace could pressure oil prices and defense sector valuations 2.

Corporate earnings after the bell delivered mixed signals. Coinbase missed on headline numbers but showed robust growth in institutional trading and stablecoin activity, underscoring the maturing crypto market and the pivot toward less speculative, more utility-driven digital assets 4. Meta’s renewed stablecoin ambitions add to the narrative that Big Tech is re-engaging with blockchain, which could drive further institutional adoption and regulatory scrutiny 7. Conversely, Celsius’s founder sentencing is a stark reminder of ongoing compliance risks in crypto, likely reinforcing the premium for regulated platforms 6.

Lyft ’s strong Q1, record rides, and expanded buyback program offer a bright spot for the mobility sector, with after-hours gains reflecting renewed investor confidence and effective activist engagement 5. The company’s guidance and cash flow strength could buoy sentiment for other gig economy names. On the policy front, the Pentagon’s order to remove transgender troops and NOAA’s climate data rollback are unlikely to move markets directly but may shape ESG and defense sector narratives over time 1011.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor official tariff announcements, developments in US-Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, and any Congressional movement on tax policy. Crypto and fintech names may see heightened volatility as institutional adoption and regulatory themes play out. Watch for rotation into industrials and exporters on trade optimism, and continued bifurcation in tech and crypto based on regulatory clarity and institutional flows.