TL;DR

Iran nuclear talks fail; Nvidia earnings, China chip push, and EU–US tariff moves in focus.

Highlights

• Iran–E3 nuclear talks end without agreement; UN sanctions "snapback" likely as IAEA inspectors partially return to Iran1.
• Israel prepares for ground operation in Gaza City, signaling heightened regional risk3.
• Ukraine and Russia escalate energy infrastructure attacks; Russian fuel shortages and Ukrainian power outages worsen4.
• EU to fast-track removal of tariffs on US industrial goods, potentially prompting US auto tariff cuts; preferential rates for some seafood/agriculture included2.
• Rare earth and tungsten prices surge as US miner MP Materials halts China exports; Western officials move to block Chinese acquisition of Vietnam’s Nui Phao tungsten mine98.
• China’s $1 trillion equity rally triggers tighter margin rules; retail flows up, leverage high, foreign inflows limited5.
• Chinese AI chipmakers plan to triple output in response to US export curbs; domestic hardware-software alignment advances6.
• Nvidia earnings in focus, with $46B quarter expected; guidance on China sales and US export controls closely watched13.
• Crypto funds see $1.4B in weekly outflows, led by Bitcoin ETFs; institutional demand softens11.
• Italy considers €1.5B bank levy and delayed tax payments to manage fiscal pressures7.
• Ofgem raises UK energy price cap 2% for winter; household bills remain elevated16.
• Germany and Canada sign pact to strengthen critical-mineral supply chains, aiming to reduce reliance on China/Russia20.

Commentary

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. The collapse of Iran–E3 nuclear talks, with UN sanctions likely to be reimposed, and Israel’s preparations for a ground offensive in Gaza both raise the risk of further instability in the Middle East13. This environment supports a cautious stance on regional assets and may add a risk premium to oil and select commodities. The Russia–Ukraine conflict is now directly impacting energy infrastructure, with reciprocal strikes leading to fuel shortages in Russia and power outages in Ukraine, a development that could tighten energy markets as winter approaches4.

Trade policy is shifting. The EU’s accelerated plan to remove tariffs on US industrial goods could pave the way for US auto tariff reductions, providing potential upside for European autos and US industrials2. However, the EU’s defensive measures to shield its aluminium sector from US tariffs highlight ongoing trade friction in specific sectors15. Italy’s proposed bank levy and tax payment delays reflect ongoing fiscal challenges in the eurozone periphery and may weigh on local financial stocks7.

In Asia, China’s equity rally—driven largely by retail and state-backed flows—has prompted brokers to tighten margin requirements as leverage surges. Foreign participation remains subdued, raising questions about the rally’s sustainability5. Meanwhile, China’s push to expand domestic AI chip production is a direct response to US export restrictions, with implications for global semiconductor supply chains and for Nvidia ’s China business, which is under scrutiny ahead of its earnings report613. Rare earth and tungsten markets are tightening as Western governments seek to restrict Chinese access to critical minerals, driving up prices and benefiting non-Chinese producers such as MP Materials 98.

Crypto markets saw their largest outflows since March, with institutional demand softening amid macro uncertainty11. In Europe, the UK’s energy price cap increase and Germany–Canada’s critical-mineral pact both reflect ongoing supply-side and inflationary pressures, with implications for utilities, industrials, and commodity currencies1620.

Traders should focus on Nvidia ’s results for direction in tech and AI-linked equities, monitor energy and critical mineral prices for supply-driven moves, and watch for further developments in Middle East and Eastern European geopolitics, which could impact risk sentiment and commodity markets131.