TL;DR

Trump demands Powell exit and deep rate cuts; S&P 500, Nasdaq hit records on Vietnam deal; House advances major tax/border bill.

Highlights

• Trump escalated attacks on Fed Chair Powell, calling him a "moron," demanding a 300bps rate cut, and urging immediate resignation ahead of July FOMC 151.
• S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.94%) closed at record highs after a US-Vietnam trade deal; US to impose 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods, 40% on rerouted Chinese goods 10.
• House GOP advanced Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (permanent 2017 tax cuts, $350B for border/defense, Medicaid cuts); Senate passed its version 51–50 3.
• US border apprehensions fell to a record-low 6,070 in June, attributed to expanded enforcement; Congress debates new border and immigration measures 14.
• Pentagon said June US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites will delay Iran’s nuclear program by 1–2 years 2.
• US paused some arms shipments to Ukraine due to low munitions stocks; Ukraine criticized the move, Russia welcomed it 6.
• FDA limited next-gen Moderna and Novavax Covid vaccine approvals to 65+ and high-risk groups, overruling staff; updated myocarditis warnings for young males on mRNA vaccines, but no recall or black box warning 48.
• SEC stayed approval of Grayscale’s multi-asset crypto ETF, delaying US spot ETF expansion beyond Bitcoin /ETH 5.
• OpenAI disavowed Robinhood’s “OpenAI tokens” in Europe, raising legal concerns over tokenized private equity 7.
• Ukrainian strike hit Russian ammunition depot in occupied Donetsk; follows similar attacks in Luhansk 12.
• Reports surfaced of US contractors firing live rounds at Gaza aid crowds; deadly Israeli airstrike on Gaza café used 500-lb bomb, killing dozens 913.
• WHO urged governments to raise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks by 50% by 2035 11.

Commentary

Equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, supported by the US-Vietnam trade agreement. The deal’s targeted tariffs reduced broader trade conflict concerns and boosted US firms with Vietnamese exposure, notably Nike. However, the labor market showed signs of cooling, and political pressure on the Fed intensified as President Trump publicly demanded both a 300bps rate cut and the resignation of Chair Powell 1015. This direct intervention raises fresh questions about central bank independence ahead of the July FOMC 1.

Fixed income markets face increased uncertainty. The White House’s push for aggressive rate cuts and the House’s advancement of a deficit-expanding fiscal package (“One Big Beautiful Bill”) could complicate the Fed’s policy calculus. If enacted, the bill’s permanent tax cuts and higher spending may stoke inflation expectations, potentially putting upward pressure on yields 3.

Geopolitics remain a key risk factor. The Pentagon’s assessment that US strikes have set back Iran’s nuclear program by up to two years may temporarily ease some Middle East risk premium 2, but the US pause in arms shipments to Ukraine and ongoing violence in Gaza and Ukraine keep regional tensions high 613. Energy and defense sectors remain sensitive to further developments.

In other sectors, the FDA’s restrictive Covid vaccine stance and updated myocarditis warnings could weigh on Moderna , Novavax , and Pfizer 48. The SEC’s delay of Grayscale’s multi-asset crypto ETF approval slows US crypto ETF diversification 5, while Robinhood’s tokenized equity initiative faces legal headwinds after OpenAI’s disavowal 7.

Traders should monitor Fed communications, Congressional action on fiscal policy, and geopolitical headlines for near-term catalysts.