TL;DR

Trump fires BLS chief after weak jobs; Fed cut odds surge; S&P 500, Bitcoin rebound.

Highlights

• Trump fired the BLS chief after weak July jobs data; unemployment rose to 4.2% and prior payrolls were revised down 1.
• Markets now price an 80–90% chance of a September Fed rate cut; Goldman Sachs expects three consecutive cuts 1.
• Trump will name new Fed governor and BLS chief within days, potentially increasing political influence over economic policy 2.
• S&P 500 rebounded 0.6% after last week’s 3.2% pullback; VIX fell 12% to below 19 20.
• Russia ended its moratorium on short- and intermediate-range missiles, raising global security risks 3.
• EU suspended planned tariff countermeasures on U.S. goods for six months, easing near-term trade tensions 5.
• Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 operating earnings fell 4% on tariff-driven sales weakness; cash pile reached $344 billion 9.
• Tesla granted Elon Musk a $29 billion stock award; shares rose 2% but remain down 25% YTD 8.
• Bitcoin topped $115,000 after MicroStrategy bought 21,021 BTC for $2.5 billion; broad crypto rally continued 1112.
• SEC launched “Project Crypto” to modernize securities rules for digital assets 6.
• Palantir hit a record high ahead of Q2 earnings; options imply a 13.5% post-earnings move 13.
• Novo Nordisk shares fell further as Indian generics threaten its obesity drug franchise 16.

Commentary

Markets are reacting to a convergence of policy, macro, and corporate developments. The firing of the BLS chief after a weak July jobs report and large downward revisions has drawn attention to the risk of increased political influence over economic data and policy 12. Despite concerns about data integrity, traders are focused on the dovish implications: rate cut odds for September now stand at 80–90%, with Goldman Sachs projecting a series of cuts 1. This has weighed on the dollar, kept Treasury yields in check, and supported a rebound in equities, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and volatility easing as the Cboe Volatility Index fell below 19 20.

Geopolitical and trade headlines are also in play. Russia’s decision to end its missile moratorium adds a layer of global security risk, though direct market impact appears limited for now 3. The EU’s suspension of planned tariff retaliation against the U.S. removes a near-term overhang for exporters and multinationals, helping sentiment 5.

Corporate earnings and strategic moves remain in focus. Berkshire Hathaway’s results highlight the drag from tariffs and supply chain issues, but its record cash position signals flexibility for future opportunities 9. Tesla’s new $29 billion stock grant to Musk addresses governance uncertainty, though operational headwinds persist 8. Palantir’s record run ahead of earnings and the SEC’s “Project Crypto” initiative both underscore continued investor interest in tech and digital assets 613, while Bitcoin’s rally above $115,000—boosted by MicroStrategy’s large purchase—reflects renewed risk appetite in crypto 1112.

Traders should monitor late-session news on Fed and BLS appointments 2, Palantir’s earnings release 13, and any geopolitical headlines 3. The market remains constructive as long as the S&P 500 holds above key technical levels, but headline risk is elevated 20.