Highlights

• S&P 500 surged 2.5% and Dow jumped 1,016 points after President Trump affirmed Fed Chair Powell’s job and signaled possible China tariff reductions; Nasdaq up 2.7%, Tesla rallied 7%.
• White House is considering cutting China tariffs to 50–65%, with a tiered approach for strategic goods; no final decision yet.
• U.S. dollar rallied sharply, then stabilized on Trump’s Fed and China remarks; euro fell 0.49% vs USD, gold dipped as risk appetite returned.
• Tesla Q1 profit fell 71% on weak sales and boycotts; Musk to reduce government duties and refocus on Tesla, boosting shares 5% after hours.
• Intel to cut over 20,000 jobs (20% of workforce) in major restructuring under new CEO; shares rose 3–5% on cost-cut optimism.
• Boeing beat Q1 estimates despite China returning two 737 MAX jets over tariffs; 10% of Boeing’s commercial backlog at risk, but company sees manageable impact and strong revenue growth.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $912.7M in net inflows—largest since January—led by ARK, Fidelity, and BlackRock; total Bitcoin ETF assets now above $100B, Ethereum ETFs also saw renewed inflows.
• US leveraged long equity ETFs drew record $6.6B in inflows last week, driven by retail; foreign investors withdrew $7B from US stock funds, raising concerns about asset repricing.
• Treasury 2- and 5-year note auctions saw mixed demand and higher yields; mortgage rates rose to 6.90%, but new home sales beat expectations, up 7.4% MoM.
• DOJ launched antitrust probe into Disney’s 70% stake in FuboTV (merging with Hulu + Live TV); Disney paid Fubo $220M to settle prior litigation.
• US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s energy/nuclear sectors ahead of Oman talks; EIA data showed crude stocks flat but sharp draws in gasoline/distillates.
• Novavax shares soared 21% as COVID-19 vaccine nears full FDA approval, though timeline delayed amid political scrutiny.

Market Commentary

Markets staged a robust relief rally today, powered by President Trump’s assurance of Fed independence and hints at a significant reduction in China tariffs. The S&P 500 and Dow posted their strongest single-day gains in months, as risk appetite returned and volatility retreated. The dovish shift in trade rhetoric, combined with the White House’s consideration of a tiered tariff rollback, has eased global growth concerns and sparked a broad-based bid across equities, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors and tech. Tesla’s rebound, despite weak earnings, underscores the market’s focus on forward guidance and executive attention.

The rally extended to the U.S. dollar, which spiked on the prospect of policy stability and improved macro outlook, while gold retreated as haven demand faded. However, the Treasury market sent mixed signals: recent 2- and 5-year auctions showed tepid indirect demand and slightly higher yields, suggesting that foreign appetite for U.S. debt may be waning. This is consistent with data showing $7 billion in foreign outflows from U.S. equities, even as retail investors pile into leveraged long ETFs at record pace. The divergence between robust retail flows and institutional/foreign selling could set up for increased volatility if sentiment shifts.

In corporate news, Intel’s sweeping layoffs and Boeing’s strong results (despite China delivery hiccups) highlight both the challenges and resilience in U.S. industrials. Tesla’s production delays tied to China’s rare earth export curbs and ongoing tariff uncertainty remain a risk to supply chains, though Musk’s renewed focus on the company was well received. Meanwhile, the DOJ’s probe into Disney’s FuboTV deal and Eli Lilly’s legal actions signal heightened regulatory and competitive scrutiny in media and healthcare.

Commodities saw a mixed day: oil inventories were flat, but gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply, supporting energy prices. New U.S. sanctions on Iran add a layer of geopolitical risk, though the market impact appears muted for now. In crypto, Bitcoin ETFs drew their largest inflows since January, signaling renewed institutional and retail interest amid macro uncertainty, with Ethereum products also seeing a modest turnaround.

Traders should watch for late-session profit-taking after the sharp equity rally, monitor Treasury yields for signs of further foreign selling, and keep an eye on developments in U.S.-China trade policy and tariff litigation. The disconnect between retail exuberance and institutional caution, combined with ongoing cross-currents in rates, commodities, and crypto, points to a market that remains headline-driven and sensitive to policy signals. Stay nimble into the close.