TL;DR

Iran Strait of Hormuz risk rises; Trump threatens 35% Japan tariffs; SEC approves first U.S. multi-crypto ETF.

Highlights

• U.S. intelligence reports Iran loaded naval mines onto vessels after Israeli strikes, raising Strait of Hormuz closure risk; Iran also suspends cooperation with the IAEA, restricting nuclear oversight 12.
• Pentagon halts shipments of Patriot missiles and precision munitions to Ukraine due to depleted U.S. stockpiles, as Russian attacks intensify 3.
• Trump threatens 30–35% tariffs on all Japanese imports if no trade deal by July 9, with potential impact on yen (C:JPYUSD ) and Nikkei 225 4.
• European Commission proposes a binding 90% emissions cut by 2040, with limited carbon credit use; member states to debate mid-July 5.
• Mercosur concludes free-trade agreement with EFTA, expanding South American access to a $4 trillion market 6.
• Foxconn withdraws 300+ Chinese engineers from India iPhone plants, potentially slowing Apple ’s India ramp-up amid rising China-India and U.S.-China tensions 7.
• SEC approves first U.S. multi-asset spot crypto ETF (Grayscale GDLC), broadening institutional crypto access 8.
• Mexico’s oil output nears 46-year low, tightening heavy crude supply for U.S. refiners amid other regional constraints (VLO , XOM , I:OSX , USOY , USOI , FTXN , C:MXNUSD ) 10.
• Canada seeks removal of Trump-era U.S. tariffs by July 21, but signals some levies may remain 11.
• China’s Communist Party signals crackdown on price wars in EV (JKS , XPEV , NIO , JZXN , LOBO , NAAS ), solar (ELPW ), battery, and e-commerce (PDD ) sectors to address overcapacity and margin pressure 15.
• Israel intercepts Houthi missile from Yemen; Trump says Israel has agreed to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire, urging Hamas to accept 1413.
• U.S. judge allows 16-count criminal case against Huawei to proceed; separately, Huawei open-sources Pangu AI models to drive chip adoption (BIDU , BABA ) 916.

Commentary

Geopolitical risks are intensifying in energy and security. U.S. intelligence on Iranian naval mine activity and Tehran’s suspension of IAEA cooperation raise the probability of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of global oil and gas flows 12. This, alongside Mexico’s falling crude output (C:MXNUSD ) and ongoing sanctions on Venezuela, is likely to keep upward pressure on global energy prices and volatility in oil-linked assets (I:OSX ) 10.

Trade policy remains a major driver. Trump’s tariff threats against Japan ahead of the July 9 deadline could pressure Japanese equities and the yen (C:JPYUSD ), with spillovers for global supply chains, especially in autos and electronics 4. Canada’s push to remove U.S. tariffs, but with possible partial compromises, adds further uncertainty to North American trade and manufacturing 11.

On the tech front, Foxconn’s withdrawal of Chinese engineers from India underscores the operational risks in Apple ’s supply chain diversification, potentially slowing India’s emergence as a major electronics hub 7. The SEC’s approval of Grayscale’s multi-asset spot crypto ETF is a notable development for digital asset markets, likely to support further institutional inflows and broaden crypto exposure 8. In China, the government’s crackdown on price wars in key sectors signals a shift toward stabilizing industrial margins, which could affect global supply, pricing, and sector equities (JKS , XPEV , NIO , JZXN , LOBO , NAAS , ELPW , PDD ) 15.

The EU’s proposed 2040 emissions target introduces medium-term regulatory risk and opportunity for energy, utilities, and carbon markets (CCSB , CCSO ) 5. Meanwhile, the Mercosur-EFTA deal stands out as a positive for South American exporters, potentially supporting local currencies (C:BRLUSD , C:ARSUSD , C:CHFUSD , C:NOKUSD , C:EURUSD ) and equities 6.

Traders should monitor energy prices for further upside risk, watch yen and Nikkei volatility ahead of the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline, and track crypto flows post-ETF approval. Industrial and tech names exposed to China and supply chain realignment may see increased volatility.