TL;DR

U.S.–China extend tariff truce; Nvidia, AMD resume China chip sales; Ethereum ETFs see record inflows.

Highlights

• U.S. and China extend tariff truce for 90 days to Nov. 10; both suspend new levies, supporting global risk sentiment1.
• Trump allows Nvidia and AMD to resume certain AI chip exports to China with a 15% revenue share to the U.S. Treasury; China warns state firms about Nvidia’s H20 chip security2.
• China removes export curbs on 12 U.S. firms, delays action on 16 others, signaling selective trade de-escalation5.
• OPEC raises 2026 oil demand outlook, trims non-OPEC supply forecast, and expects U.S. tight-oil production to decline in 20263.
• Nikkei 225 closes at record high as tariff concerns ease and tech stocks rally; SoftBank, chip-equipment makers lead7.
• Ethereum ETFs see record $1B in daily inflows, outpacing Bitcoin ETF demand; Ether trades near $4,30011.
• Circle unveils Arc blockchain, reports 53% YoY revenue growth post-IPO; USDC circulation up 90%12.
• Spirit Airlines issues going-concern warning months after bankruptcy, citing weak demand and liquidity risks8.
• Gildan Activewear nears $5B deal to acquire Hanesbrands ; Hanesbrands shares up 43% pre-market, Gildan down 6%9.
• Cardinal Health to acquire Solaris Health for $1.9B, raises 2026 profit outlook; shares fall 9% on revenue miss and deal size10.
• BigBear.ai cuts outlook and drops 28%; Pony AI beats revenue estimates and guides for strong robotaxi growth14.
• OpenAI to double compute capacity after GPT-5 launch, potentially boosting chip demand17.

Commentary

The extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce and China’s selective removal of export curbs on U.S. firms are easing near-term trade risk, supporting global equities and risk appetite15. Asian markets responded strongly, with the Nikkei 225 closing at a record high7, and U.S. markets are likely to open firmer as traders price in a lower probability of immediate escalation. The focus remains on whether ongoing negotiations will yield more durable progress before the new November deadline1.

In technology, the U.S. administration’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China—subject to a 15% revenue share with the Treasury—offers partial relief but introduces new compliance and margin risks2. Chinese state guidance to avoid Nvidia’s H20 chips over security concerns could limit the revenue upside2. OpenAI’s plan to double compute capacity following GPT-5’s release may further benefit U.S. chip suppliers17, but the sector faces ongoing regulatory and geopolitical headwinds2.

Commodities traders are watching OPEC’s raised 2026 oil demand outlook and lower non-OPEC supply forecast, which point to a potentially tighter market ahead3. The expectation of declining U.S. tight-oil output in 2026 may support crude prices, though July production rose after quota increases3.

Crypto flows remain robust: U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs drew a record $1 billion in daily inflows, highlighting strong institutional demand and pushing Ether toward all-time highs11. Circle’s Arc blockchain launch and strong post-IPO growth reinforce the sector’s momentum, with potential spillover into related equities12.

On the corporate front, M&A and earnings are driving sharp moves. Hanesbrands is surging on Gildan ’s $5B acquisition approach9, while Cardinal Health ’s shares are under pressure after a $1.9B deal for Solaris and a revenue miss10. Spirit Airlines ’ going-concern warning highlights persistent stress in U.S. airlines8. In AI, BigBear.ai’s outlook cut contrasts with Pony AI’s positive results, underscoring mixed conditions in the autonomous tech space14.