TL;DR

Trump tariff delay lifts equities; Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt; OPEC+ to boost oil output.

Highlights

• Global equities rally after Trump delays 50% EU tariffs to July 9; Dow futures up 500+ points 2.
• Gold falls 1.2% to $3,304/oz as risk appetite rises; U.S. dollar gains 0.3% 2.
• OPEC+ expected to raise July output by 411,000 b/d; Brent crude drops to $64.62; EU mulls $45 Russian oil price cap 320.
• Japan’s MOF signals reduction in super-long JGB issuance after yields hit multi-decade highs; global bond markets react 118.
• Bank of Japan signals possible rate hikes as yen strengthens and services inflation rises 3.1% y/y 7.
• Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt to Aa1; Trump tax cuts projected to add $3–5T to deficit; 10-year Treasury yields >4.5% 9.
• Warren Buffett to retire as Berkshire Hathaway CEO; Greg Abel named successor; Apple remains top holding 5.
• PDD Holdings (Temu parent) Q1 misses; shares down 11–15% pre-market, citing U.S.-China trade tensions 8.
• Circle (USDC issuer) files for NYSE IPO, offering 24M shares at $24–$26 4.
• EU approves €150B SAFE defense loan program as part of €800B ReArm Europe plan 10.
• U.S. and EU halt joint Russia sanctions enforcement; new EU package targets banks, oil, trade; U.S. weighs narrower Russia sanctions 136.
• Google research shortens quantum threat timeline for RSA encryption; BlackRock warns on Bitcoin security risks 12.

Commentary

Risk sentiment is positive at the open, with U.S. futures sharply higher after Trump’s decision to delay 50% tariffs on EU imports 2. The move has triggered a global equity rally, especially in sectors exposed to international trade, but the short negotiation window through July 9 means trade uncertainty remains elevated 2. Gold and other safe-haven assets are under pressure as investors rotate into risk assets, while the U.S. dollar is modestly firmer 2.

Fixed income markets remain volatile. Japan’s Ministry of Finance is moving to reduce super-long JGB issuance after yields spiked to multi-decade highs, causing ripple effects across global bond markets 118. The Bank of Japan ’s signal of possible rate hikes, combined with firmer services inflation and a stronger yen, adds another layer of complexity for global rates and FX traders 7. In the U.S., Moody’s downgrade and projections of a $3–5 trillion deficit increase from Trump-backed tax cuts are keeping Treasury yields above 4.5%, highlighting ongoing fiscal concerns 9.

In commodities, OPEC+ is expected to approve a moderate supply increase, pushing Brent crude to multi-month lows 3. The EU’s consideration of a lower Russian oil price cap and internal OPEC+ tensions could fuel further volatility 20. Lower oil prices may ease inflation but could pressure energy equities and oil-linked currencies 320.

On the corporate front, Berkshire Hathaway ’s leadership transition is in focus, though Buffett’s continued involvement should provide stability 5. PDD Holdings ’ earnings miss and pre-market drop underscore the impact of U.S.-China trade friction on Chinese ADRs 8. Circle’s IPO will test market appetite for crypto-exposed equities, especially as Google ’s quantum computing research and BlackRock ’s warnings highlight long-term risks to Bitcoin security 412.

Geopolitical developments—including the halt in U.S.-EU Russia sanctions coordination, new EU defense funding, and ongoing quantum security concerns—underscore a more fragmented and complex global backdrop 101213. Traders should monitor headlines on U.S. fiscal policy, BOJ actions, OPEC+ decisions, and U.S.-EU/China trade negotiations for further direction.