TL;DR

Trump pushes Fed for rate cuts; Uber, Disney, Shopify report; crypto ETFs see heavy outflows.

Highlights

• Trump intensifies calls for Fed rate cuts; markets price in 75bps easing by year-end, yields fall1.
• Uber authorizes $20B buyback after Q2 beat and strong guidance; shares dip slightly pre-market5.
• Disney raises full-year profit outlook as streaming turns first profit; shares down on revenue miss6.
• Shopify jumps 10% pre-market on strong revenue beat and bullish outlook13.
• McDonald’s beats Q2 estimates; global comparable sales rebound, shares up 3% pre-market12.
• Tesla to roll out major FSD software upgrade in September amid ongoing share price pressure4.
• OpenAI eyes $500B valuation in secondary share sale; possible IPO and capital raise ahead3.
• Bitcoin and Ether ETFs see $1.25B and $400M outflows; options skew bearish as Fed cut odds rise8.
• Glencore misses profit forecasts, launches $1B cost-cutting, scraps New York listing shift1419.
• Novo Nordisk Q2 growth slows despite Wegovy sales surge; legal action against copycats expands1020.
• Trump threatens new tariffs on India over Russian oil imports, raising trade and energy risks9.
• Nvidia rebuts Chinese chip backdoor claims, warns US against mandated “kill switches” in exports2.

Commentary

US markets enter the session with a clear focus on monetary policy and earnings. Trump’s public campaign for Fed rate cuts has coincided with markets now pricing in 75bps of easing by year-end, pushing Treasury yields lower1. The sharp repricing reflects concerns over softening payrolls and services data1. Fed policy expectations are driving both risk sentiment and sector rotation, with upcoming economic releases likely to move rates and equities1.

Earnings remain a mixed picture. Uber ’s $20B buyback and strong Q2 results highlight robust free cash flow, though shares are muted pre-market5. Disney ’s streaming segment turned its first profit and the company raised guidance, but shares are down on a modest revenue miss and softer Disney+ subscriber growth6. Shopify is the clear outperformer, rallying 10% pre-market on a strong beat and upbeat outlook13, while McDonald’s also impresses with a sales rebound12. Tesla ’s planned FSD upgrade could be a medium-term catalyst, but near-term sentiment is still weighed by weak auto sales and pricing4.

In tech and AI, OpenAI’s potential $500B valuation in a secondary sale underscores persistent investor appetite for AI exposure, with implications for Microsoft and broader tech multiples3. Nvidia ’s rebuttal of Chinese security concerns and its warning to US policymakers on chip export controls highlight ongoing regulatory risks for US chipmakers operating globally2.

Commodities and healthcare are under pressure. Glencore’s profit miss and cost-cutting reflect weaker coal and copper markets14, while Novo Nordisk ’s slower growth and legal escalation against compounded GLP-1 competitors point to rising US pricing and regulatory headwinds1020. Trump’s tariff threats against India over Russian oil imports add new uncertainty to global trade and energy flows9.

Crypto sentiment remains defensive. Bitcoin and Ether ETFs saw heavy outflows as options traders position for further downside, even as some corporates accumulate on weakness8. Macro drivers—especially Fed policy and inflation data—will be key for risk assets in the coming weeks8.