Highlights

• Apple Q2 earnings rose 5% (revenue $95.4B, profit $24.8B), but warned of a $900M tariff hit in Q3; trims buyback by $10B as manufacturing shifts to India/Vietnam; stock fell post-earnings 1.
• Trump administration ends de minimis exemption, imposing 120%+ tariffs on small-value Chinese imports; Shein and Temu prices spike, Shein pauses London IPO; e-commerce and logistics firms brace for higher costs 3.
• China signals openness to U.S. tariff talks but demands "sincerity" and rollback of recent tariffs; Asian equities and global futures rise on hopes for de-escalation 2.
• Tesla denies CEO search rumors after 71% earnings drop; Trump publicly backs Musk; shares remain under pressure 4.
• U.S. April jobs report expected to show 138,000 new jobs, unemployment steady at 4.2%; recession odds rise (Goldman: 45%, JPM: 60%) as Q1 GDP contracts 0.3% 11.
• Japan's finance minister hints at using $1T+ U.S. Treasury holdings as leverage in trade talks; Nikkei rallies for 7th day as yen weakens to 145.50/USD 1518.
• Trump imposes 25% tariff on Japanese autos, escalating trade tensions; Toyota sold 2.3M vehicles in U.S. last year; Japanese automakers adjust U.S. production 12.
• Shell , Chevron , and Exxon report Q1 profit declines on lower oil prices but maintain buybacks; Shell beats estimates, Chevron and Exxon in line or slightly below 8.
• Take-Two shares plunge 16% after Rockstar delays GTA VI release to May 2026 7.
• U.S. and Iran near a 25-year nuclear deal; Netanyahu surprised, Israel weighs unilateral options; regional tensions persist with Israeli strikes in Syria and Houthi attacks on Israel 5619.
• Bitcoin dominance hits 64.7%, highest since Jan 2021; altcoins lag as investors favor BTC 13.
• Cigna beats Q1 expectations, raises 2025 EPS guidance; strong revenue growth and operational efficiency 10.

Commentary

A volatile open looms as traders digest a barrage of macro, corporate, and geopolitical headlines. U.S.-China trade friction remains front and center: Apple ’s solid quarter is overshadowed by a $900M tariff warning and a trimmed buyback 1, while the abrupt end to the de minimis exemption slams e-commerce names like Shein and Temu and raises consumer price pressures 3. China’s tentative openness to tariff talks has buoyed Asian equities and global risk sentiment 2, but with no concrete timeline or U.S. concessions, the path to de-escalation remains fraught.

The U.S. labor market is in focus with April’s jobs report expected to confirm a marked slowdown. Recession fears are mounting—Goldman and JPMorgan both see sharply higher odds—after Q1 GDP slipped into contraction 11. The Fed’s tone remains cautious, and any downside surprise in payrolls could see yields fall and defensive equities outperform, while a hot print may briefly support the dollar but stoke stagflation concerns given the tariff-driven inflation backdrop.

Trade tensions are broadening: Trump’s new 25% tariff on Japanese autos risks retaliation, and Japan’s finance minister is now openly floating the use of its $1T+ Treasury holdings as leverage 1215. The yen’s slide has powered a Nikkei rally 18, but further depreciation could spark global currency volatility, especially if U.S.-Japan talks sour. Meanwhile, U.S. fixed income may see added volatility if Japan even hints at reducing Treasury purchases.

Commodities are under pressure as oil majors report profit drops on weaker crude prices, though capital returns remain robust. Shell , Chevron , and Exxon all maintained buybacks despite lower profits 8. Geopolitics remains a wild card: U.S.-Iran nuclear talks 5 and fresh Israeli military actions in Syria 6 and against Houthi threats 19 keep the Middle East risk premium alive, but so far have not reversed the downward trend in oil.

In crypto, Bitcoin ’s market dominance at a four-year high signals continued risk aversion within digital assets, as investors shun altcoins amid macro uncertainty 13. Cigna ’s strong quarter stands out in healthcare 10, while Take-Two ’s sharp drop on GTA VI’s delay is a reminder of execution risk in tech and gaming 7.

What to watch: U.S. jobs data for recession signals; further fallout in consumer/tech stocks from tariff escalation; yen and Treasury market moves on Japan’s trade posture; oil and defense names on Middle East headlines; and continued rotation within crypto as Bitcoin consolidates its lead. Stay nimble—headline risk remains elevated across asset classes.