Highlights

• Israel and the US launched joint airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen’s Hodeidah port, escalating Middle East tensions following recent Houthi missile attacks on Israel 1.
• President Trump imposed a 100% tariff on foreign films, hitting entertainment stocks (Netflix, Disney, Paramount, Warner Bros.) and signaling further protectionist measures 2.
• 3G Capital to acquire Skechers for $63/share (25% premium), taking the company private in a $9.4B deal—one of the largest recent LBOs 3.
• OpenAI will restructure as a Public Benefit Corporation under nonprofit control, aiming to align AGI development with broader societal goals 4.
• Trump administration signals more aggressive trade policy: “Liberation Day” tariffs on China (up to 145%), 17 new trade deals nearing completion, and new incentives for US investment 5.
• Israel threatens major Gaza offensive (“Operation Gideon’s Chariots”) post-Trump visit if no hostage deal is reached, raising geopolitical risk in the region 6.
• Petrobras cuts diesel prices for the third time in 2025, lowering costs for distributors and potentially impacting global fuel markets 7.
• China’s May Day holiday saw a surge in travel (112M rail trips) and consumption (5.7T yuan), underscoring robust domestic demand and tourism recovery 8.
• Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) now live on Solana , with the first bridgeless BTC-Cardano transfer—advancing crypto interoperability 9.
• DHS launches a voluntary self-deportation program for undocumented immigrants, offering $1,000 and free flights, aiming to cut federal costs 10.
• France and the EU unveil €600M in incentives to attract US scientists, responding to Trump’s academic policies and escalating global competition for talent 16.
• Georgia Gov. Kemp declines 2026 Senate run, complicating GOP efforts to challenge incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff 11.

Commentary

A volatile news cycle is driving cross-asset risk sentiment into the final trading hours. The joint US-Israel airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port 1 and Israel’s threat of a new Gaza offensive 6 are heightening geopolitical risk in the Middle East. This could underpin oil prices and defense sector stocks, even as Petrobras ’ diesel price cut offers some relief to global fuel inflation 7. Traders should watch for late-session moves in energy and defense names, as well as potential safe-haven flows into Treasuries and the US dollar if escalation fears mount.

On the domestic policy front, Trump’s 100% tariff on foreign films rattled major entertainment stocks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to protectionist measures 2. The administration’s broader trade strategy—escalating tariffs on China and a flurry of new trade deals—signals further volatility for multinational equities, especially those with global supply chains or significant China exposure 5. The push for tax cuts and investment incentives may offer some offset for US-focused industrials and tech, but the near-term impact is likely to be sector-specific.

M&A activity remains robust, as evidenced by 3G Capital’s $9.4B buyout of Skechers at a hefty premium 3. This underscores private equity’s appetite for consumer brands and could spur speculation in other mid-cap names. Meanwhile, OpenAI ’s structural shift to a Public Benefit Corporation under nonprofit control may temper pure profit expectations for AI plays, but reinforces the sector’s long-term societal focus—a nuance for tech investors to digest 4.

China’s May Day consumption and travel boom is a bright spot, reinforcing the narrative of resilient domestic demand and supporting global luxury, travel, and consumer goods stocks with China exposure 8. In crypto, the launch of Wrapped Bitcoin on Solana and new cross-chain transfer capabilities are incremental positives for blockchain interoperability, potentially boosting sentiment in select altcoins and DeFi tokens 9.

Heading into the close, traders should monitor energy and defense stocks for late momentum, keep an eye on entertainment and multinational names for tariff-driven volatility, and watch for any headlines out of the Middle East that could trigger broader risk-off moves. The macro backdrop remains fluid, with US policy shifts and global geopolitical tensions likely to dictate positioning into tomorrow’s open.