TL;DR

Israel–Iran ceasefire sinks oil; global equities rally; Fed signals possible July rate cut.

Highlights

• • Trump announces Israel–Iran ceasefire to start within hours, ending 12 days of regional conflict; Iran to halt hostilities first 1.
• • Brent crude drops over 11% to $68, WTI falls 5%+ as supply risk premium unwinds; Venezuela refinery outage and Iraq oilfield staff withdrawals have limited immediate impact 214.
• • Global equities rally: MSCI Asia ex-Japan +2%, Nikkei +1.1%, India’s Sensex hits record; S&P 500 and European futures also higher 2.
• • Iran fires missiles at U.S. Al Udeid base in Qatar in response to U.S. strikes; no confirmed casualties, situation monitored 3.
• • Fed’s Bowman signals possible July rate cut if inflation remains subdued; U.S. CPI at 2.4% YoY 4.
• • Spain’s CNMV may halt BBVA /Sabadell trading pending government ruling on €14bn hostile takeover; EU and ECB scrutiny ongoing 5.
• • NATO summit opens in The Hague with U.S. push for 5% defense spending; UK and Ukraine sign joint weapons production deal, Dutch announce €175mn military aid for Kyiv 617.
• • UK regulator proposes “strategic market status” for Google Search , paving way for new rules on search and ad business 8.
• • Japan FSA proposes 20% flat tax and ETF access for crypto , aiming to boost market competitiveness 9.
• • Tether’s USDT supply hits record $157bn as U.S. Senate passes stablecoin bill; Circle shares surge 10.
• • China’s solar capacity tops 1TW after May installation surge; national power-trading market for renewables planned 13.
• • China’s auto exports face scrutiny over “zero-mileage” used-car exports inflating sales data; some importers tightening rules 19.

Commentary

The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by Trump has sharply reduced geopolitical risk, triggering a rapid sell-off in oil. Brent crude’s 11% drop and WTI’s similar decline reflect the market’s swift removal of the risk premium built up during the conflict 114. While Venezuela’s refinery outage and foreign staff withdrawals from Iraqi oilfields highlight ongoing regional fragility, current supply disruptions appear contained, and the market’s focus is shifting back to fundamentals 1112. Lower energy prices are providing a tailwind for global equities, particularly in Asia and India, where benchmarks reached new highs 2.

The risk-on sentiment is further supported by dovish commentary from the Fed. Governor Bowman’s openness to a July rate cut, contingent on continued subdued inflation, has increased market expectations for policy easing. U.S. CPI at 2.4% YoY and signs of a slowing labor market suggest fixed income markets could see curve steepening, while equities—especially cyclicals and rate-sensitive sectors—may benefit from the prospect of cheaper funding 4.

In Europe, regulatory and deal activity remain in focus. The BBVA /Sabadell takeover saga could inject volatility into Spanish and European banking shares, especially if the government’s decision leads to a trading halt 5. The UK’s proposal to designate Google Search as having “strategic market status” signals intensifying global antitrust scrutiny, with implications for tech sector valuations 8. The NATO summit’s push for higher defense spending and new military aid packages for Ukraine may support European defense stocks and maintain some geopolitical risk premium in select sectors 617.

Crypto markets are buoyed by regulatory developments. Japan’s proposed 20% flat tax and potential ETF access could attract institutional flows 9, while the U.S. Senate’s stablecoin bill has pushed Tether’s USDT supply to fresh highs and lifted Circle’s shares 10. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see strong inflows, underlining persistent institutional interest 20.

Traders should monitor the implementation of the Israel–Iran ceasefire, oil price stabilization, central bank commentary on rate cuts, and regulatory developments in both banking and digital assets for near-term market direction.