TL;DR

US slaps 50% tariff on Brazil; Bitcoin and Nasdaq hit records; Ferrero nears $3B WK Kellogg deal.

Highlights

• Trump administration imposes 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, sharply escalating US-Brazil trade tensions; Brazilian real and US-listed Brazil ETFs drop.1
• Bitcoin hits new record above $112,000, triggering $200M in short liquidations; MicroStrategy and El Salvador post large unrealized gains.21015
• Nasdaq Composite closes at record high; Nvidia briefly tops $4T market cap in tech-led rally.2
• Revolut seeks $65–$75B valuation in $1B funding round after doubling 2024 pretax profit.8
• Ferrero in advanced talks to acquire WK Kellogg for ~$3B; WK Kellogg shares jump 50% after hours.7
• Autodesk explores cash-and-stock acquisition of PTC , potentially combining major engineering software platforms.9
• California advances SB 53, which would require major AI firms to disclose safety protocols and incident reports.6
• US resumes arms shipments to Ukraine after brief pause; Defense Secretary Hegseth faces bipartisan criticism, with Senator Tillis withdrawing support.314
• UK and France to coordinate nuclear deterrence for the first time, signaling closer European defense ties.5
• US sanctions UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese over anti-Israel actions, increasing friction with UN bodies.11
• Brazilian right-wing lawmakers intensify impeachment calls against President Lula, but no formal proceedings initiated.13

Commentary

US markets closed with strong risk appetite, led by tech and crypto. The Nasdaq hit a record close, fueled by continued strength in megacap tech—Nvidia briefly reached a $4T valuation.2 Bitcoin ’s breakout above $112,000 triggered significant short covering and further boosted crypto-exposed equities such as MicroStrategy , which now sits on $24B in unrealized Bitcoin gains.210 El Salvador’s sovereign Bitcoin reserve also posted substantial paper profits, reinforcing the sector’s momentum.15

Trade policy risk resurfaced as the Trump administration announced a sweeping 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, a move that immediately pressured the Brazilian real and US-listed Brazil ETFs.1 The tariff escalation, tied to political disputes over Brazil’s treatment of former president Bolsonaro, heightens the risk of retaliation and could disrupt supply chains, particularly in commodities and agribusiness.1 Traders should monitor for spillover into broader emerging market sentiment.

Corporate activity remained robust. Ferrero’s $3B bid for WK Kellogg sent the target’s shares soaring after hours,7 while Autodesk ’s interest in PTC signals ongoing consolidation in industrial software.9 Revolut’s pursuit of a $65–$75B valuation on the back of strong profitability highlights continued investor demand for fintech exposure.8

On the policy front, California’s SB 53 could set a precedent for US AI regulation, requiring major developers to disclose safety protocols and incident reports.6 In geopolitics, the US resumed arms shipments to Ukraine after a brief pause,3 but Defense Secretary Hegseth faces bipartisan criticism, raising questions about future defense leadership.14 UK-France nuclear coordination marks a notable shift in European security posture.5