TL;DR

Softer CPI boosts Fed cut odds; oil slides on surplus warning; Ethereum ETFs see record inflows.

Highlights

• July CPI came in below expectations; S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records as Fed rate-cut bets rise 20.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent urges the Fed to consider a 50bp cut in September; market odds for a cut near 93% 3.
• IEA projects record oil surplus in 2026; Brent drops below $67, EIA forecasts Q4 average under $60 4.
• Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil imports; India plans exporter relief 2.
• U.S. embeds trackers in AI-chip shipments to curb illegal diversions to China, tightening export enforcement 1.
• Treasury’s Bessent floats 200% secondary sanctions on China at G-7, signaling possible escalation 10.
• Ethereum ETFs draw $1B in a day, pushing Ether near all-time highs; Standard Chartered lifts 2025 target to $7,500 714.
• Crypto exchange Bullish raises $1.1B in NYSE IPO, heavily oversubscribed 9.
• OKX burns 65M OKB tokens, caps supply, and triggers a 200% surge in the token 8.
• China bars dealings with two EU banks over Russia sanctions, escalating EU-China tensions 5.
• Japan’s five-year bond auction sees weakest demand since 2020 amid BOJ rate hike expectations; yen pressured 18.
• Tencent beats Q2 estimates with 15% revenue growth, boosting Hong Kong tech sentiment 13.

Commentary

U.S. equities are set for a strong open after July CPI data came in below expectations, reinforcing market conviction that the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting 20. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s public push for a 50bp cut has added to dovish momentum, with futures markets now pricing in a near certainty of at least a 25bp move 3. Tech and AI-related stocks remain in focus, supported by the macro backdrop and ongoing U.S.-China tech friction, including tighter U.S. controls on AI-chip exports 1.

Energy markets are under pressure after the IEA warned of a record oil surplus in 2026, driving Brent below $67 and prompting the EIA to forecast sub-$60 prices for Q4 4. Rising U.S. inventories and increased OPEC+ output add to the bearish tone for crude, likely weighing on energy equities and supporting sectors sensitive to lower fuel costs 4.

Crypto markets are seeing renewed institutional inflows, with Ethereum ETFs posting record one-day subscriptions and Ether approaching all-time highs 7. Standard Chartered’s sharply higher price target and the successful Bullish IPO highlight strong investor demand for digital assets 149. The OKX token burn and supply cap have triggered a major repricing in OKB , further fueling sector volatility 8.

Geopolitics remain a risk factor. The U.S. is intensifying export controls on semiconductors 1, and Bessent’s mention of potential 200% secondary sanctions on China at the G-7 signals a willingness to escalate economic pressure 10. Meanwhile, Trump’s new tariffs on Indian goods 2 and China’s retaliation against EU banks add to global trade uncertainty 5. In fixed income, weak demand at Japan’s five-year bond auction and rising BOJ rate hike expectations are pressuring the yen and could impact global rates positioning 18.