TL;DR

US yields stay high on $4T Trump tax bill; Apple, tech pressured by tariffs; Nvidia earnings key.

Highlights

• US 30-year Treasury yield holds above 5% on fiscal concerns after Trump-backed $4T tax bill; S&P 500 and USD fell last week 1.
• Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU goods to July 9; 25% tariffs on non-US iPhones/Samsung still expected by end of June 23.
• Apple shares down 22% YTD, worst among Magnificent Seven; bearish options activity intensifies 4.
• Nvidia reports Q1 earnings Wednesday; options market pricing in 8% move; launches new China-compliant AI chip 56.
• US banks (JPM, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo) explore joint stablecoin, potentially boosting Treasury demand by $2T if SLR rules shift 11.
• Bitcoin ETFs see $2.75B weekly inflows; BlackRock IBIT leads; Bitcoin hits new all-time high; stablecoin market cap at $151B 1220.
• Gold up 28% YTD with $85B in fund inflows; demand supported by trade tensions and China central bank buying 13.
• US EPA proposes eliminating greenhouse gas limits for coal/gas plants; House passes Trump-backed bill rolling back clean energy credits 819.
• Trump fast-tracks nuclear power expansion, aims to quadruple output in 25 years; nuclear stocks rally 9.
• US approves Venture Global CP2 LNG plant as shale boom slows; BP cancels $5B sustainable fuel project 17.
• EU and US consider further sanctions on Russia after new strikes in Ukraine; EU mulls SWIFT bans, lower oil price cap, and Nord Stream ban 1415.
• Tesla to launch unsupervised robotaxi service near Austin HQ next month 18.

Commentary

US markets face a complex start to the week, with rates, policy, and tech sector headwinds in focus. Treasury yields remain elevated as the $4 trillion Trump tax bill and rollback of clean energy incentives raise deficit and fiscal sustainability concerns 119. This has weighed on equities and the dollar, with outflows from US stocks and a rotation toward perceived policy-stable regions 1.

Trade and tariff risks remain prominent. The delay of 50% tariffs on EU goods to July 9 offers temporary relief 2, but the threat of 25% tariffs on non-US smartphones looms for Apple and Samsung 3. Apple shares are under heavy pressure, down 22% YTD, with bearish options activity reflecting concerns over supply chain disruption and margin compression 4. Nvidia ’s Q1 earnings Wednesday will be a key sentiment driver for tech; the company is also adapting to US-China export controls with a new AI chip for the Chinese market 56.

In fixed income and crypto, the potential for a joint US bank stablecoin could drive significant new demand for Treasuries if SLR rules are adjusted 11. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs and gold are both seeing strong inflows as investors seek alternatives amid policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk 1213. Gold is up 28% YTD, supported by central bank buying and safe-haven flows 13, while Bitcoin and stablecoins continue to gain traction 1220.

Energy and industrials are in transition. The US is advancing LNG exports with the Venture Global CP2 approval, but the shale boom is slowing and BP is pulling back on green fuel investment 17. Trump’s push to accelerate nuclear power licensing is lifting nuclear equities, with AI-driven electricity demand cited as a long-term growth factor 9. On the regulatory front, the EPA’s move to eliminate greenhouse gas limits and the House’s rollback of clean energy credits add further uncertainty for renewables 819.

Geopolitical risk persists as the EU and US consider new sanctions on Russia following fresh strikes in Ukraine 14. Proposals include SWIFT bans and a lower oil price cap, which could impact energy flows and commodity prices 15. Traders should monitor Treasury and gold flows, tech sector volatility (especially around Nvidia earnings), and developments in trade policy and sanctions.