TL;DR

Trump-Putin Alaska summit, China macro misses, and U.S. Bitcoin reserve drive pre-market focus.

Highlights

• Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for Ukraine truce and arms talks; sanctions relief and nuclear deal on table 1.
• Ukraine strikes Russian Caspian port, damaging vessel with Iranian drone parts ahead of summit 5.
• U.S. Treasury to establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using seized coins; Senator Lummis proposes gold revaluation to fund further accumulation 2.
• Tether mints $1B USDT, stablecoin supply surges $9.5B in a month; Hyperliquid DEX posts record $7.7M daily fees 917.
• China’s July industrial output and retail sales miss forecasts; property sector weakness deepens, raising stimulus expectations 3.
• China warns foreign firms on rare-earth stockpiling, signaling risk of tighter export controls 4.
• Port of LA sees record July imports as retailers front-load ahead of tariffs; Chinese-built ships reroute before new U.S. port fees 11.
• Bridgewater, Tiger Global boost Microsoft/Netflix AI bets, cut $1.4B China exposure; European AI stocks fall on disruption concerns 12.
• Trump administration to cut federal workforce by 12.5% in 2025 following Supreme Court ruling; legal challenges ongoing 6.
• Japan Q2 GDP beats at 1% annualized on export rush before U.S. tariffs; BoJ faces policy pressure as tariffs threaten profits 167.

Commentary

Geopolitics is front and center as Trump and Putin convene in Alaska for talks on a Ukraine cease-fire and potential arms-control agreement 1. The market will be watching for any sign of sanctions relief for Russia or a framework on nuclear arms, both of which could move energy, defense, and European assets 1. Ukraine’s overnight strike on a Russian port underscores ongoing conflict risk, but the summit’s outcome will likely set the tone for risk assets and commodity markets in the near term 5.

Macro headwinds from China continue, with July data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output and retail sales, and deepening property market weakness 3. This reinforces concerns about global demand and could weigh on commodities, EM equities, and cyclicals 3. China’s warning to foreign firms on rare-earth stockpiling adds another layer of supply chain risk, potentially supporting U.S. and allied efforts to diversify sourcing of critical minerals 4.

On the digital asset front, the U.S. Treasury’s move to formalize a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the surge in stablecoin issuance highlight crypto’s growing integration into the financial system 29. Record activity on decentralized exchanges suggests robust liquidity and institutional interest 17. However, these developments come as regulatory scrutiny tightens in Asia and as U.S. lawmakers debate reserve asset strategies 152.

In equities, major hedge funds are increasing exposure to U.S. tech and AI leaders while cutting China holdings, mirroring a broader risk-off stance toward emerging markets 12. The record import volumes at U.S. ports—driven by tariff front-running—are likely to reverse in coming months, with shipping and logistics volatility expected as new port fees on Chinese-built vessels take effect 11. Meanwhile, Japan’s stronger-than-expected GDP print gives the BoJ some policy room, but U.S. tariffs remain a headwind for Japanese corporates 167.

Traders should monitor the Alaska summit press conference, U.S. data releases, and developments in shipping and crypto markets for near-term direction 11129. Sector rotation and volatility remain likely as macro and geopolitical risks remain elevated.