TL;DR

OpenAI seeks $500B valuation; BlackRock drives record Ethereum ETF inflows; Meta, xAI, and DeFi ramp infrastructure.

Highlights

• OpenAI is in talks for a $6B secondary share sale at a $500B valuation, with SoftBank, Thrive, and Dragoneer; revenue run-rate now $12B, but GPT-5 rollout faces user backlash and GPU shortages13.
• GPT-5 launch triggers complaints over paywalls and user experience; enterprise adoption is strong with major partners switching, and OpenAI expands its sales force to target high-growth markets3.
• China’s DeepSeek and Alibaba open-source AI models are rapidly gaining global users, pressuring U.S. incumbents as OpenAI’s competitive edge narrows9.
• Meta is splitting its Superintelligence Labs and increasing AI capex to $66–72B, following senior departures and product challenges; $29B data center financing secured5.
• xAI integrates Grok 4 Mini into X’s feed, requiring 20,000 GPUs; Grok Android app surpasses 50M downloads with high user satisfaction410.
• European software stocks fall as new AI models threaten incumbents; capital rotates into AI infrastructure, with Bridgewater, SoftBank, and Soros increasing Nvidia stakes11.
• BlackRock ’s $2.3B ether and $887M bitcoin purchases drive a record $2.9B week for U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs; institutional flows into crypto ETFs accelerate6.
• Gemini files for Nasdaq IPO, revealing $283M H1 loss and declining revenue; joins a wave of crypto listings amid improved regulatory clarity2.
• ICE partners with Chainlink to deliver institutional-grade FX and metals data onchain, securing $93.5B in DeFi and expanding Chainlink’s oracle dominance7.
• Aave surpasses $3T in lifetime deposits, with USDT borrowing rates above 12% and USDC APRs near 25%, reflecting robust DeFi activity12.
• U.S. layoffs rose 29% in July to 62,075, with rising bankruptcies and record student loan delinquencies signaling consumer and corporate stress13.
• American Bitcoin, backed by Trump family members, targets acquisitions in Japan and Hong Kong to build a global bitcoin reserve platform8.

Commentary

Late-stage AI and crypto infrastructure continue to attract significant capital and attention, with OpenAI’s $500B secondary share sale1 and BlackRock ’s record Ethereum ETF inflows6 standing out. OpenAI’s revenue growth and enterprise traction offset some negative sentiment from the GPT-5 rollout and ongoing GPU constraints3, but the rapid rise of Chinese open-source models highlights intensifying global competition and may pressure U.S. incumbents on pricing and openness9.

Meta ’s ongoing AI reorganization and capex ramp5, alongside xAI’s integration of Grok into X4 and strong consumer uptake10, illustrate the escalating investment in compute and infrastructure. The rotation out of European software into AI hardware—evidenced by increased fund positions in Nvidia 11—signals that investors are prioritizing foundational tech over application-layer incumbents, with implications for software startup valuations and exit prospects.

The crypto sector is seeing renewed institutional engagement, as demonstrated by BlackRock ’s aggressive ether and bitcoin accumulation6 and Gemini’s IPO filing despite widening losses2. The ICE –Chainlink partnership and Aave ’s $3T milestone further reinforce the maturation of DeFi infrastructure712, while American Bitcoin’s international expansion shows political capital increasingly aligning with digital asset strategies8.

Macro headwinds—rising layoffs, bankruptcies, and consumer delinquencies—pose risks for consumer-facing and discretionary tech, likely tightening late-stage funding and exit windows in those sectors13. VC investors should closely monitor late-stage AI and crypto deal flow, enterprise adoption of new models, and the impact of macroeconomic stress on portfolio companies.