TL;DR

S&P 500 earnings beat sharply; Nvidia, AI hardware, and crypto ETFs see strong inflows; Fed cuts expected.

Highlights

• S&P 500 Q2 EPS rose 11% (vs. 4% expected), with 60% of firms beating by >1 SD; Q3 estimates revised up, supporting fresh index highs 3.
• Nvidia shipment and price targets raised by Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald ahead of earnings 6; SoftBank to build AI hardware in Ohio via $375M Foxconn plant deal 8.
• US spot Ethereum ETFs posted $2.85B in weekly inflows (record); Bitcoin ETFs saw $548M; Solana funds also strong. Ethereum unstaking queue hit $3.8B, raising near-term supply concerns 1019.
• Bitcoin fell below $115,000 amid $534M in liquidations and hot US PPI data 5; MicroStrategy added 430 BTC, now holding 629,376 coins 15.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts three Fed rate cuts in 2025 (starting September) due to sharply slowing job growth 7.
• PBOC set strongest yuan fix since 2024, injected 266.5B yuan liquidity 4; held rates steady despite weak July data 13. China’s rare earth exports up 69% as trade surplus hit $1.2T 12.
• Pipeline strike halted Russian oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia 2; Russian drones struck SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine, adding to energy market risks 11.
• Japan’s FSA to approve first yen stablecoin (JPYC); Nikkei 225 closed at a record high, led by exporters as yen weakened to ¥147.5 9.
• Tesla halved UK lease rates after a 60% July sales drop, intensifying EV price competition in Europe 14.
• Thoma Bravo in advanced talks to acquire Dayforce (AI HR software) for $9B; shares surged up to 27% pre-market 16.
• Trump outlined Ukraine peace terms requiring Kyiv to drop NATO bid and Crimea claim 1; US–South Korea launched joint drills amid regional tensions 17; Iran to resume IAEA nuclear talks 18.

Commentary

US equities remain supported by strong fundamentals, with S&P 500 earnings growth far outpacing expectations and analysts revising Q3 forecasts higher 3. Tech and AI hardware continue to attract capital and analyst upgrades, as seen in Nvidia’s upward shipment revisions 6 and SoftBank’s US manufacturing push 8. These trends reinforce the current momentum in large-cap tech and AI-related names.

Digital asset markets are seeing robust inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs 10, but the record-high Ethereum unstaking queue (~$3.8B) 19 and recent Bitcoin volatility—driven by leveraged liquidations and hotter-than-expected PPI 5—highlight ongoing two-way risk. MicroStrategy ’s continued accumulation of Bitcoin underscores institutional confidence 15, but traders should monitor for further deleveraging and the impact of Ethereum unlocks on near-term prices 19.

Macro signals are mixed. Goldman Sachs ’ call for three Fed cuts this year is based on sharply slowing US job growth 7, though sticky inflation (PPI) may complicate the Fed’s path 5. In China, the PBOC’s strong yuan fix and liquidity injection aim to stabilize outflows 4, but weak domestic data 13 and a surge in rare earth exports reflect persistent growth and trade imbalances 12. These factors could affect global risk sentiment and commodity flows.

Energy markets face renewed supply risks after a pipeline strike halted Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia 2, and Russian drone strikes hit an oil depot in Ukraine 11. These disruptions may add volatility to European energy and refined product markets. In corporate news, M&A remains active with Thoma Bravo’s $9B Dayforce bid 16, and competitive pressures are evident as Tesla slashes UK lease rates amid falling sales 14.

Geopolitics remain a background risk: Trump’s Ukraine comments 1, US–South Korea military drills 17, and Iran’s nuclear talks 18 could all influence risk appetite, but no immediate market-moving developments are expected for US trading today.