TL;DR

Trump expands tariffs to 100+ nations; Nvidia resumes China chip sales; banks, J&J beat Q2 estimates.

Highlights

• Trump to impose a uniform 10%+ tariff on imports from 100+ smaller nations starting August 1; pharma and chip tariffs possible 1.
• U.S. and Indonesia reach deal: 19% tariff on Indonesian exports, Indonesia to buy 50 Boeing jets and $19.5B in U.S. goods 8.
• USTR opens Section 301 probe into Brazil after Trump’s 50% tariff threat; Brazilian retaliation possible 7.
• Nvidia cleared to resume H20 AI chip sales to China as part of rare-earth negotiations; AMD export review pending 2.
• ASML shares drop 8% on cautious outlook despite Q2 beat; sector-wide pressure hits European tech 4.
• J&J , BNY Mellon , Goldman Sachs , and Morgan Stanley all beat Q2 estimates; banks cite trading/dealmaking rebound, J&J raises 2025 outlook 56.
• Rumors over Fed Chair Powell’s possible ouster intensify; betting odds rise to 25%, but market reaction muted 3.
• Japanese investors sharply increase U.S. Treasury buying in May; GPIF hits record allocation as Japan yields rise 1416.
• BlackRock buys ~$400M in Bitcoin and $150M+ in Ether, driving ETF inflows; Bitcoin ETFs see eight straight days of net subscriptions 9.
• Trump claims GOP votes secured to advance GENIUS Act, potentially paving way for first federal stablecoin regulation 11.
• UK inflation rises to 3.6%, complicating BoE rate-cut outlook; sterling firms on the data 20.
• Israel strikes Syrian military HQ; France, UK, Germany warn Iran of possible UN sanctions snapback by August 1213.

Commentary

Trade policy remains front and center as the Trump administration expands tariffs to over 100 smaller nations, with implementation set for August 1 1. The Indonesia deal—locking in a 19% tariff and major U.S. export commitments—offers a template for other countries facing tariff threats, while Brazil is now under a Section 301 investigation with the risk of a 50% tariff and possible retaliation 78. These developments increase uncertainty for importers, select EM exporters, and U.S. multinationals with global supply chains. Boeing stands to benefit from Indonesia’s aircraft order, but broader tariff escalation could pressure margins for U.S. firms reliant on low-cost imports 8.

In tech, Nvidia ’s approval to resume H20 chip exports to China, tied to rare-earth negotiations, is a positive for U.S. chipmakers but faces bipartisan scrutiny and remains subject to ongoing trade talks 2. ASML’s sharp drop after a cautious outlook signals global chip demand uncertainty, with ripple effects seen across European tech 4. U.S. semiconductor names may see relative strength, but the sector is likely to remain volatile as trade and regulatory risks persist 24.

Financials and healthcare posted strong Q2 results: J&J raised guidance on robust oncology and MedTech sales, while major banks—BNY Mellon , Goldman Sachs , and Morgan Stanley —cited a rebound in trading and dealmaking 56. These results suggest improved risk appetite and capital markets activity in H2, though ongoing policy uncertainty—highlighted by rumors over Fed Chair Powell’s tenure and a narrow Senate vote on spending cuts—could inject volatility into rates and the dollar 317. Notably, Japanese investors accelerated U.S. Treasury purchases even as domestic yields hit multi-year highs, supporting U.S. rates but signaling potential for global bond market volatility if Japanese fiscal policy shifts 1416.

In crypto, BlackRock’s large Bitcoin and Ether purchases are driving continued ETF inflows, supporting institutional demand despite ongoing exchange security incidents and pending U.S. stablecoin regulation (GENIUS Act) 911. UK inflation’s upside surprise complicates the BoE’s rate-cut path, while Middle East tensions and Iran nuclear risks remain on the geopolitical radar 121320. Traders should monitor tariff developments, central bank headlines, and earnings guidance as key drivers into the U.S. open.