TL;DR

Trump eyes early Powell replacement; dollar drops, gold up; Walgreens beats, pulls guidance; oil, platinum rally.

Highlights

• Trump considers early Fed Chair Powell replacement; dollar hits 3.5-year low, gold and euro rise, Treasury yields ease 1.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent extends “extraordinary measures” to avoid US debt default through July 24, 2025 2.
• Oil climbs as US crude inventories fall 5.8 million barrels; OPEC+ may advance supply hikes 3.
• Platinum surges to $1,381/oz, an 11-year high, on supply deficit and strong Chinese demand 5.
• Walgreens beats Q3 estimates but withdraws FY25 guidance as Sycamore buyout nears; shares up on profit beat 6.
• Pfizer ’s hemophilia drug meets all Phase 3 endpoints; Altimmune ’s MASH trial misses fibrosis target, shares drop ~40% 8.
• Meta hires three senior OpenAI researchers, escalating the AI talent race 7.
• Trump secures NATO pledge to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP by 2035; Pentagon shifts FY26 budget to missiles and drones 910.
• EU leaders to tighten Russia sanctions and weigh response to renewed US tariff threats 11.
• Iran halts cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog; Supreme Leader Khamenei’s absence stirs succession concerns amid ceasefire 1415.
• Coinbase launches wrapped Cardano and Litecoin on Base; Binance, Upbit, and Kraken list Sahara AI token 1718.
• Japan cuts super-long bond issuance to ease yield pressure; rejects US auto tariffs ahead of July deadline 416.

Commentary

The US dollar is under pressure after President Trump signaled he may announce a successor to Fed Chair Powell months ahead of schedule, raising the prospect of a more dovish Fed. The Dollar Index has dropped to a multi-year low, supporting gold and the euro while easing Treasury yields. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of US rate cuts by year-end, which could continue to weigh on the dollar and support non-USD assets 1.

Fiscal uncertainty remains in focus as Treasury Secretary Bessent extends special accounting measures to delay a US debt default until late July. With Congress yet to resolve the debt ceiling, short-term volatility in Treasuries and credit markets is possible as the new deadline approaches 2.

Commodities are active: Oil is up for a second session on a larger-than-expected US inventory draw, but OPEC+ may bring forward supply increases, potentially capping further gains 3. Platinum is seeing outsized moves, hitting decade highs on supply constraints and strong Chinese demand, lifting related mining equities and ETFs 5.

In equities, Walgreens posted a profit beat but withdrew forward guidance as its Sycamore buyout nears, highlighting ongoing sector uncertainty 6. In healthcare, Pfizer ’s positive Phase 3 hemophilia data stands in contrast to Altimmune ’s sharp selloff after its MASH trial missed a key fibrosis endpoint 8. Meta ’s recruitment of senior OpenAI talent intensifies the AI sector’s competitive dynamics, with implications for tech and chip names 7.

Geopolitical and regulatory headlines remain relevant: Trump’s NATO deal and the Pentagon’s budget shift point to ongoing defense sector tailwinds 910; EU leaders are set to tighten Russia sanctions and discuss US tariff threats 11. In crypto, Coinbase’s new wrapped tokens and the Sahara AI token debut highlight continued sector innovation 1718. Japan’s bond issuance adjustment and auto tariff talks add to global rate and trade watchpoints 416.