TL;DR

US-China tariff talks stall; IMF flags inflation risk; Boeing, Novo Nordisk move on earnings, outlook.

Highlights

• US-China trade talks in Stockholm continue; risk of tariffs snapping back to 145%/125% if no extension by Aug. 12 112.
• US effective tariff rate at 17.3%, highest since 1930s; IMF says tariffs will keep US inflation elevated 14.
• IMF raises 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 3.0% and China’s to 4.8%, but flags trade risks 1315.
• President Trump warns India may face 20–25% tariffs if trade deal talks stall 3.
• US job openings fell to 7.44 million in June, below expectations; hiring slows, quits steady 5.
• US goods trade deficit narrows to $86B in June on sharp import drop, likely boosting Q2 GDP 10.
• EPA proposes rescinding 2009 climate endangerment finding, potentially unwinding $1T in regulations; legal challenges expected 2.
• Boeing narrows Q2 loss, beats revenue estimates on higher jet deliveries; certification delays push key models to 2026 6.
• Novo Nordisk shares plunge up to 30% after slashing 2025 outlook and CEO change; Wegovy demand disappoints in US 9.
• Palo Alto Networks in advanced talks to acquire CyberArk for over $20B, fueling cybersecurity M&A 8.
• JPMorgan close to replacing Goldman Sachs as Apple Card issuer, potentially taking on $17B in loans 7.
• BlackRock says new US stablecoin rules (Genius Act) will reinforce dollar’s global role 16.

Commentary

US-China trade negotiations remain the central macro risk as the August 12 deadline for the tariff truce approaches. Both sides are signaling openness to an extension, but no deal is in place; if talks fail, tariffs could revert to punitive levels, threatening supply chains and global trade sentiment 112. The IMF’s updated forecasts reflect some resilience, with global and China growth nudged higher, but the Fund warns that high US tariffs—now at 17.3%, the highest since the 1930s—will keep US inflation above target and could pressure growth if new duties are imposed or extended 1314.

Trade policy uncertainty is not limited to China. President Trump’s threat of 20–25% tariffs on Indian imports if bilateral talks stall adds another layer of risk for multinationals and exporters 3. Meanwhile, the sharp narrowing of the US goods trade deficit, driven by a drop in imports, should provide a one-time boost to Q2 GDP, though it may also reflect tariff front-loading or softer domestic demand 10.

Labor market data shows job openings and hiring momentum slipping, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain cautious and data-dependent. Rate-sensitive sectors may see continued volatility as traders weigh the prospect of slower growth against persistent inflation tied to tariffs 514.

On the corporate side, Boeing ’s improved Q2 results and cash flow are tempered by delays in key aircraft certifications, pushing major launches into 2026 6. Novo Nordisk’s record share price drop after slashing its outlook and changing CEOs highlights the competitive and regulatory pressures in healthcare, with Eli Lilly gaining ground 917. In tech and financials, Palo Alto ’s potential $20B acquisition of CyberArk signals ongoing cybersecurity consolidation, and JPMorgan ’s likely takeover of the Apple Card book would further entrench its consumer credit leadership 78. BlackRock’s positive view on new US stablecoin regulation suggests continued institutional support for digital assets and the dollar’s global dominance 16.