Highlights

• OKX has relaunched its DEX aggregator after a 49-day pause due to security concerns, introducing real-time fraud monitoring, a wallet upgrade spanning 130+ blockchains, and a $1.17M $ZKJ airdrop, with significant incentives for Solana traders.1
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady on May 7 amid persistent inflation and political pressure from President Trump , with markets closely watching Chair Powell's post-meeting comments for policy signals.2
• Taiwan’s dollar surged 5% in its largest single-day gain since 1988, driving a 4% drop in USDTWD ; the central bank cited foreign inflows and strong trade surpluses, and scheduled an emergency briefing as exporters and insurers sold USD, causing volatility in crypto markets.3
• Turkey’s inflation fell for the 11th consecutive month to 37.86% in April, but the lira hit a historic low amid political unrest, with the central bank adjusting rates to stabilize the economy.4
• Israel approved an indefinite military presence in Gaza, escalating regional tensions and humanitarian concerns, with potential implications for geopolitical risk assets.5
• President Trump ordered a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, extending his administration’s protectionist trade stance into the entertainment sector and raising questions about enforcement and potential retaliation.6
• The U.S. is considering movie tariffs under Section 232 for national security, a move that could impact the services trade surplus with China and set a precedent for taxing intangibles.8
• Chinese exporters are increasingly using "place-of-origin washing" via third countries to evade U.S. tariffs, raising concerns among transit nations and signaling ongoing trade friction.7
• Germany’s SPD unveiled its ministerial team for the new Merz government, with continuity in defense and finance portfolios but notable leadership changes elsewhere.9
• Romania’s far-right nationalist George Simion leads the presidential race with 40.94% and will face centrist Nicusor Dan in a May 18 runoff, with the outcome potentially affecting EU and NATO dynamics.10

Commentary

This week opens with a complex macro and geopolitical backdrop that is likely to keep crypto market volatility elevated. The relaunch of OKX ’s DEX aggregator after a high-profile security pause signals renewed confidence in DeFi infrastructure, with enhanced fraud monitoring and a major wallet upgrade spanning over 130 blockchains. The $ZKJ airdrop, targeting Solana traders among others, may drive renewed activity and liquidity across both established and emerging chains, especially as users seek to capitalize on incentives and improved execution.1

Macro policy remains a key driver: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected rate hold on May 7 comes amid persistent inflation and overt political pressure from President Trump . While no immediate move is anticipated, Powell’s post-meeting tone will be scrutinized for any hints of dovishness or division within the FOMC, with potential spillover effects on risk assets, including crypto. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s upcoming decision and a slew of U.S. economic data releases (CPI, PPI, jobless claims) could further sway global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment.2

Currency volatility is front and center, with the Taiwan dollar ’s historic surge and the Turkish lira’s record low highlighting divergent capital flows and policy responses in Asia and emerging markets. The TWD’s sharp appreciation—driven by foreign inflows and trade surpluses—triggered notable activity in crypto markets, as local exporters and insurers rapidly offloaded USD. This dynamic, coupled with ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions (including new tariffs and Chinese exporters’ circumvention tactics), underscores the growing interplay between fiat FX moves and digital asset flows, particularly in Asia-facing stablecoins and altcoins.37

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. Israel’s decision to deepen its military presence in Gaza and the possibility of further trade escalation from the U.S. (including unconventional tariffs on movies and services) add layers of uncertainty. These developments could spur safe-haven flows or risk-off moves, depending on how broader markets react to headlines and any escalation.568

For traders, the focus should be on cross-market volatility, especially in Asia-linked assets and DeFi protocols benefiting from infrastructure upgrades or incentive programs. Watch for spillover effects from fiat FX moves into stablecoin pairs and altcoin liquidity, as well as any signals from central banks that could shift the macro narrative. With geopolitical and policy risks running high, risk management and nimble positioning remain paramount.